Sideways Bitcoin, the new Bitcoin :) Booooring
ที่อัปเดต:
The Bitcoin has turned from the most exciting asset to the most boring lately. I still think but even more hope it's just a phase and this sideways/controlled movements will become history soon, because this is not Cryptoic :). Most moves that take more than a day nowadays, used to take an hour a few months ago. The extreme volatility we had a few months back, is quite exceptional and won't turn back in the same force very easily. The market is probably more mature with bigger players who make less emotional decisions (panic selling and FOMO buying). Which is a good sign for the market (stability) but it will chase out traders because the whole charm of day trading Bitcoin is almost gone. There are a few good moments like we had a week ago, but that was the only time in almost a month. The controlled movements are just so clear, but to what end is not clear yet.
The last 24H it was clear on Gdax Bitcoin was getting dumped, at some moments i saw the spread going up to even 90 points but most of the time around 50 points. I have not seen this for maybe 2 months now. This is a clear signal, BUT the higher the difference became, the higher the price on Bitfinex went (compared to Bitstamp, and probably others). So it almost looks like, the harder someone pushed the market down at Gdax, almost looked like someone on Bitfinex was trying to compensate.
It's just something i have not seen in a while, it's worth pointing it out! But the meaning, i can't really tell. I would say bearish, but maybe the dumping is on Gdax is over already, i don't have that info.
Technicals, we dropped out of that triangle and this were looking great, volatility was in the house, price was making a bear flag from which it broke out of on the downside. Price got supported ate the support level and the flag got extended into a rising wedge. We even saw a break of this bearish pattern and a 100 point drop, but buyers were just coming in to buy. And a day later this wedge got turned into a bullish channel, from which it almost seems that it will drop out off. Bulls were not able to push it above the 9300 and in the chart we can see the resistance levels for the bulls.
I went short at 9240 2 days ago, right before that drop out of the triangle, had a 400 point profit but i had decided up front that i would keep the position because i expected a break of the 8700. I did not think the 8900 would hold for long as well. I was wrong, so far at least. Normally i take partially profit after a 200/300 drop, because i am forced to lately with this sideways action, but the volatility from last week AND the break of the triangle gave me hope. But one should never hope in any market :) I took risk with my profit, so it's not that bad, but even more it was my plan upfront and not an emotional decision, that's the most important.
When i went short at 9240, most alts were showing short term bearish signs. Earlier this week it was 50/50 most of the time (something i mentioned a few times before. Yesterday some alts turned bullish again which makes it less clear again about what the market wants to do. If bulls are able to get it above the 9500, only than will i be willing to look up again. Bulls had me on their side until a few days ago, things looked great when it broke that (smaller) triangle upwards but failed around the 9500. This is a very weak signal and it's still my main signal. It's difficult to predict what the market wants to do because with this sideways action, volumes are low which means TA gets less predictable as well.
I do have a (short term) bullish scenario in my head still, and that is this price action looks allot like the 7800/8500 from 2 weeks ago. Where price also looked like making a bigger correction downwards several times but bulls were just buying it up again. So when it gets above the 9350 than things become neutral for me and above 9550 things get slightly bullish again.
The last 24H it was clear on Gdax Bitcoin was getting dumped, at some moments i saw the spread going up to even 90 points but most of the time around 50 points. I have not seen this for maybe 2 months now. This is a clear signal, BUT the higher the difference became, the higher the price on Bitfinex went (compared to Bitstamp, and probably others). So it almost looks like, the harder someone pushed the market down at Gdax, almost looked like someone on Bitfinex was trying to compensate.
It's just something i have not seen in a while, it's worth pointing it out! But the meaning, i can't really tell. I would say bearish, but maybe the dumping is on Gdax is over already, i don't have that info.
Technicals, we dropped out of that triangle and this were looking great, volatility was in the house, price was making a bear flag from which it broke out of on the downside. Price got supported ate the support level and the flag got extended into a rising wedge. We even saw a break of this bearish pattern and a 100 point drop, but buyers were just coming in to buy. And a day later this wedge got turned into a bullish channel, from which it almost seems that it will drop out off. Bulls were not able to push it above the 9300 and in the chart we can see the resistance levels for the bulls.
I went short at 9240 2 days ago, right before that drop out of the triangle, had a 400 point profit but i had decided up front that i would keep the position because i expected a break of the 8700. I did not think the 8900 would hold for long as well. I was wrong, so far at least. Normally i take partially profit after a 200/300 drop, because i am forced to lately with this sideways action, but the volatility from last week AND the break of the triangle gave me hope. But one should never hope in any market :) I took risk with my profit, so it's not that bad, but even more it was my plan upfront and not an emotional decision, that's the most important.
When i went short at 9240, most alts were showing short term bearish signs. Earlier this week it was 50/50 most of the time (something i mentioned a few times before. Yesterday some alts turned bullish again which makes it less clear again about what the market wants to do. If bulls are able to get it above the 9500, only than will i be willing to look up again. Bulls had me on their side until a few days ago, things looked great when it broke that (smaller) triangle upwards but failed around the 9500. This is a very weak signal and it's still my main signal. It's difficult to predict what the market wants to do because with this sideways action, volumes are low which means TA gets less predictable as well.
I do have a (short term) bullish scenario in my head still, and that is this price action looks allot like the 7800/8500 from 2 weeks ago. Where price also looked like making a bigger correction downwards several times but bulls were just buying it up again. So when it gets above the 9350 than things become neutral for me and above 9550 things get slightly bullish again.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Best thing we can hope for is more volatility, because only than the market shows it's real hand. Previous analysis
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Gdax is still pushing it down it seems, but others still don't followบันทึกช่วยจำ
So it dropped out and just pushed higher again. It's just like at the 8000/8200 all over again. The consolidation is bigger, so it does not mean we will make another wave up above 10K because of that. I am still not convinced, but i am staying flat now. This action is is unreliable, for me. Alts are showing bullish signs again, so based on that things are looking bullish again.บันทึกช่วยจำ
So looks like the market is finally showing its hand. Now it’s almost a confirmed bear trap at the 9000 yesterday, this could give a good bullish impulse, if they don’t fall a sleep again :)บันทึกช่วยจำ
Not at home so I cant judge it really good, but now it looks like it made another, bigger triangle from which it broke out on the upside. With this it could still take us to that 10.500 which I mentioned a week ago, the targets of that big inverse H&S and the big bull flag from the 6k’sบันทึกช่วยจำ
So far that Gdax dumping had no meaning at all it seems. Bulls are really going for it again, making one small bull flag after the other. Looks like that bigger triangle I talked about in the previous update is valid, because of this convinced breakout and rally, confirming itบันทึกช่วยจำ
Thought it would be wise choice to take a day off because of that sideways action :). Anyways, looks like we have a target of around 10.250. But we did not have a test of the triangle yet, but looks like they don’t want to test it and just go straight for the target. Good luck for the ones who are longบันทึกช่วยจำ
I have been scrolling through some alts, i still get some mixed signals. To be clear, i only look at the bigger Alts, not the small ones. Looks like only ETH broke out upwards and is showing real bullish strength. I just find it very weird, because it looks like 'they' pick a different alt coin everyday to make a big jump higher. Bitcoin is looking very strong at the moment, as i am writing this there is an attempt to break higher, but it's only Bitfinex who is trying. But we saw yesterday that they managed to do it as well. This bull flag suggests a target around 10.400
So far Bitfinex does not get any backup from the other exchanges. This makes it a bit difficult to judge what it will do. Usually Bitfinex is leading, but not all the time.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I am seeing some profit taking around the highs, so far it the bullish patterns are 100% intact, With Bitcoin above the green support area still means 100% bullish. But there is still a chance that we see a drop towards the 9300/9500. If price would find support there, it would mean that it will have made a big rising triangle, something like thisบันทึกช่วยจำ
That bull flag is showing weakness nowบันทึกช่วยจำ
Price went slightly lower, short term the 9550 has to hold (green area). But a drop towards 9300 is still bullish บันทึกช่วยจำ
I was looking back at some of my older charts, with the updates i was also giving back than. Here you can see the difference clearly, not only the higher volatility, but the 1 min chart on Bitfinex used to be a very good chart to trade. When you put those charts (with candles) next the ones from the past month or 2, you see the difference. Looks more like the 1 min charts of Gdax now.Next to that, just look at those moves it used to make in a day, day traders dream :) I am afraid we won't be seeing the anymore
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I am still not 100% sure if that triangle is really valid, but so far it looks like it. It's testing the former support as resistance now, suggesting we drop some more from here on out. For the bullish scenario price needs to form a higher low ideally around 9400. The higher buyers jump in, the stronger the move up could be. Below 9300 things get trickyบันทึกช่วยจำ
And it's back in again, invalidating the triangle already. Above 9715 confirms it.That's it for now, i will try to make a new analysis later today.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
On this time frame the bulls seem to be clearly in control. Chances are very big we see a breakout to the upside in the next 24 hoursบันทึกช่วยจำ
I saw some price action at an exchange, i think i know what it means, but it would say that we will see a false breakout around here. But so far this bullish move has been so strong i would be surprised to see that.We will see tomorrow what have happened
บันทึกช่วยจำ
So far things are still looking good, that possible false breakout i was talking has a small chance now. บันทึกช่วยจำ
But when i zoom in, i like the bullish picture much less. I see hesitation here and i see characteristics of a small rising wedge, but can't say for sure yet. If we had a price with number around 9700 or 10.200 i would short it now, but being so close to the 10.000 level, i don't think bulls will give up with out an attempt to break the 10K levelบันทึกช่วยจำ
I am still not sure, but i have never been 100% sure, but i have been seeing some price action since yesterday, which tells me the/a high is near. I have opened a small short position at 9970 and will add until 10.200. In 4 parts between those levels, total is till a small position because it's a counter trend move. I will only add if i see some real confirmation!บันทึกช่วยจำ
I am just reading some comments and i see i have been confusing some of you, sorry about that. I have spent less time on trading and TV the last few days. Also trying to have a life :)Anyway, I am just warning for a possible outcome, i have seen these kind of things before, but it's never completely clear what the big whales are doing. The wash trading with big sell and buy walls, it's always very confusing. So it's only a warning to keep your fingers on the trigger, even though things are looking very strong and bullish!
บันทึกช่วยจำ
These are the support levels for this time frame nowบันทึกช่วยจำ
This is a 50/50 up or down breakout chance nowบันทึกช่วยจำ
I did not see the price action on this spike, but when it threatened to drop out of that triangle, this order comes up. Suggesting someone is does not want it to drop, at least not yet
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน