My MID TERM target on Bitcoin is at least 12.5K. This is based on: 1. Technical analysis: large double top formation, and flag formation (yellow channel) I do think price will go even lower, but 12.5K is minimum just based on technical set up of the chart. 2. Macro environment: higher rates and tightening of liquidity by FED - risk assets taking a hit, Bitcoin being one of them.
But, in the SHORT TERM timeframe there still is a possibility of a $29-30K range retest before going lower. Here is why I think that: 1. Price for the 2nd time this year is testing 19k - significant level, as it’s 2017 bull market high. Significant levels act as support/resistance and usually are hard to break thru (takes time). 2. Price formed a channel (blue channel) which look like a smaller version of a yellow flag channel and market participants might be expecting same outcome (downside move), but can be caught of guard with a short term upside move instead.
If there is a breakdown below 19k, it would be sign of extreme weakness, which is possible considering macro environment. But I am not fully convinced of a straight move to 12K range, even though I believe price will reach there eventually.