Bitcoin Holiday: 3 Suggestions.

25 ธ.ค. 2022

While my swing trade short idea in Bitcoin has not reached its break even stop since I suggested the adjustment, I have suggested that people in the position close it at market (16,850 area at the time). While the profit (approx +755) was not able to justify the risk, it is better to mitigate risk rather than hope for big wins in this environment. In other words, if its green, and a conflicting signal shows up, take the money and run.

The conflicting signal came earlier in the week (large green candle) which missed my profit target by less than 100 points. I have been warning followers about the type of price action to expect around weeks three and four of December. A lot of nothing and that is what we are getting.

Here is what else I suggest around this time of year:

1. AVOID the nonsense forecasts and irrelevant opinions about where markets will be in the future. If you haven't learned your lesson from the same nonsense that we were seeing a year ago, then I don't know what to tell you. NO ONE knows the future (unless you are an insider). Technical analysis sheds light on some possibilities maybe a few weeks out, maybe a month at best.

2. FOCUS on information and events that are FACTUAL. For example, we know that in January, a new senate will take over in the U.S. This means it is reasonable to expect some changes in legislation. What exactly I don't know. We also know the regulatory agencies will be very active this year, they were very public about their intentions. We also know there will be events and preparations for the next U.S. presidential election. These things can affect markets.

3. Use this quiet time to plan your investments and educate yourself more about how the industry works. Learn to account for risks and stop chasing dreams. There is no such thing as fast money in this game. Those who believe the "images" of this lifestyle are ignorant. Stop focusing on gimmicks, charting, etc, and instead take the time to consider where you fit in from the industry perspective. The sooner you figure this out, the better you will be able to judge the information that you are constantly presented with.

Over the next week, volume and activity is likely to continue to be light. There's not much on the economic calendar even worth mentioning. I suggest taking the time off, ESPECIALLY if you are on smaller time frames. While NOTHING has changed in Bitcoin, price structure still points to lower prices. Without a catalyst though, price action can be VERY random and full of false movements. It's not worth the risk and BETTER to WAIT for an environment that can drive prices with more momentum.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I sincerely wish you a happy holiday and hope you enjoy with your families. Thank you for being a great community and for your support.