Bitcoin cycle theory - for my friends to look at in 6 years :)

25 ส.ค. 2023

I have created this kind of chart in the past with some assumptions that were not exactly correct because I took into account the unit price of BTC and not the market cap of it.

This analysis and prediction is based on logarithmic theory and market cap actualization then divided by units in existence, which basically means the following:

BTC marketcap by years:
2013 - 10B
2017 - 100B (reached 250B due to over spike, will not happen again, price per unit should not have been more than 10k)
2021 - 1T (reached 1,17T with price unit of 65K with cca 18M in circulation)
2025 - 10T (2023 data: 19,467,468 BTC in circulation, with cca 0,5M new BTC to be mined in two years taking into consideration halving from 6,25 to 3,125, gives us a baseline)
2029 - 100T

Taking into account that in 2025 there will be 20M BTC(more or less), the price point would be exactly at 500k per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the 350k region

Taking into account that in 2029 there will be 20,5M BTC (more or less), the price point would be at $4,8M per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the 2M region

Happy Gam(BL)ing!