Bitcoin - Good News, Bad News
Last week's Bitcoin performance included good news and bad news.
Good news - We found support slightly below the $6000 mark when there was a real threat of breaking to the downside which would have been very nasty (shaded green support zone). We instead broke the resistance trendline to the upside.
Bad news - After breaking said trendline it would have been fair to expect a subsequent rally of some substance. We did get a few impulsive legs up to be fair, but as a whole it has been underwhelming - a "limping", rather than a "charging" bull. The price may still surprise to the upside, but for now the recovery has been mediocre at best.
Put into context, this is the fourth break of a significant resistance trendline (pink lines) since the all time high (ATH) in December last year. As can be seen below each breakout has been less impulsive:
1st - 26% in 4 days
2nd - 39% in 8 days
3rd - 39% in 16 days
4th (current) - 8.5% in 8 days
Each breakout holds the promise that the Bitcoin bull of 2017 will return - however, as can be seen every rally has resulted in a lower high (LH). Furthermore, every down trend has resulted in a marginally lower low (LL) with respect to the daily close price. Only once we see a higher high and higher low on the daily chart will the current bear trend be invalidated - this appears to be a long way off!
It is also clear that the Bitcoin price has become considerably less volatile which is not an attractive scenario from a traders perspective, however is does give rise to some interesting fundamental questions.
Is low Bitcoin volatility the sign of a maturing market or merely the result of a loss of faith in cryptocurrency? Is low volatility the new normal or are we winding up for a big move? Should low volatility be celebrated as it makes Bitcoin more suitable to be used as a transactional currency?
As a trader, I say bring back the volatility! However, perhaps a more stable, less speculative, dare I say - more boring Bitcoin - is in fact better for the crypto industry as a whole.
Good news - We found support slightly below the $6000 mark when there was a real threat of breaking to the downside which would have been very nasty (shaded green support zone). We instead broke the resistance trendline to the upside.
Bad news - After breaking said trendline it would have been fair to expect a subsequent rally of some substance. We did get a few impulsive legs up to be fair, but as a whole it has been underwhelming - a "limping", rather than a "charging" bull. The price may still surprise to the upside, but for now the recovery has been mediocre at best.
Put into context, this is the fourth break of a significant resistance trendline (pink lines) since the all time high (ATH) in December last year. As can be seen below each breakout has been less impulsive:
1st - 26% in 4 days
2nd - 39% in 8 days
3rd - 39% in 16 days
4th (current) - 8.5% in 8 days
Each breakout holds the promise that the Bitcoin bull of 2017 will return - however, as can be seen every rally has resulted in a lower high (LH). Furthermore, every down trend has resulted in a marginally lower low (LL) with respect to the daily close price. Only once we see a higher high and higher low on the daily chart will the current bear trend be invalidated - this appears to be a long way off!
It is also clear that the Bitcoin price has become considerably less volatile which is not an attractive scenario from a traders perspective, however is does give rise to some interesting fundamental questions.
Is low Bitcoin volatility the sign of a maturing market or merely the result of a loss of faith in cryptocurrency? Is low volatility the new normal or are we winding up for a big move? Should low volatility be celebrated as it makes Bitcoin more suitable to be used as a transactional currency?
As a trader, I say bring back the volatility! However, perhaps a more stable, less speculative, dare I say - more boring Bitcoin - is in fact better for the crypto industry as a whole.
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