6/3/22 - Short BTC at the end of the cycle
ที่อัปเดต:
I expect a last T cycle with a bearish constraint cause:
1 – The valid trend line (VLD) was broken in the last few hours
2 – The T+2 is probably closing bringing a lot of selling pressure on the price action
3 – A new T+2i (and maybe also a new T+3i) started at the local top of the 31st of May bringing other strong selling pressure
4 – When a T-1 low it’s broken down in the second half of a T+2 cycle the chance the T+2 cycle is turning bearish get higher.
What I expect now:
- Opening of the last T cycle of our T+2 started the 12 of May.
- Since I expect to be a bearish cycle, I expect only the first 25% (the first T-2) of the cycle to be bullish, at best.
- I’ll try then to spot a decent high in the next 2-3 days to open a short
OPEN: too early to specify a price, maybe I’ll do in a time sensitive update
STOP LOSS: The trades would be invalidated if the current monthly cycle had a ternary structure and a new T+2 would start instead of the last T.A break out of A could be a sign that this scenario is taking place.
TAKE PROFIT: I don’t personally think this T+2 cycle will close the T+5 started at the bottom of July 21 cause it would be a very short annual. Cause of this I’ve been very cautious defining my Tp, targeting just the 0.618. If you feel the annual cycle could close and bring BTC to new lows you could targeting the 0.786, 1 or even 1.272.
NOTE: be careful of the weekend price action, could be misleading. Wait for monday to open the short could be the best choice.
1 – The valid trend line (VLD) was broken in the last few hours
2 – The T+2 is probably closing bringing a lot of selling pressure on the price action
3 – A new T+2i (and maybe also a new T+3i) started at the local top of the 31st of May bringing other strong selling pressure
4 – When a T-1 low it’s broken down in the second half of a T+2 cycle the chance the T+2 cycle is turning bearish get higher.
What I expect now:
- Opening of the last T cycle of our T+2 started the 12 of May.
- Since I expect to be a bearish cycle, I expect only the first 25% (the first T-2) of the cycle to be bullish, at best.
- I’ll try then to spot a decent high in the next 2-3 days to open a short
OPEN: too early to specify a price, maybe I’ll do in a time sensitive update
STOP LOSS: The trades would be invalidated if the current monthly cycle had a ternary structure and a new T+2 would start instead of the last T.A break out of A could be a sign that this scenario is taking place.
TAKE PROFIT: I don’t personally think this T+2 cycle will close the T+5 started at the bottom of July 21 cause it would be a very short annual. Cause of this I’ve been very cautious defining my Tp, targeting just the 0.618. If you feel the annual cycle could close and bring BTC to new lows you could targeting the 0.786, 1 or even 1.272.
NOTE: be careful of the weekend price action, could be misleading. Wait for monday to open the short could be the best choice.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I'm still waiting for a good spot to enter short, open now would be to early. I think it's better to wait first for a north spike in the next few days, then target a good high to short.
I'll update this idea when I think the moment is right.
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