BTC - Long-term Cycle
Hi Everyone!
Hopefully everyone is having a wonderful day! I've been a long-time lurker of this site and thought it might be fun to finally give this thing a go, myself. Cheers, and let me know what you think.
This is not necessarily a new idea by any stretch, but one in which I attempted to create through applying concepts from some of my favorite analysts on the site, filbfilb, @WykoffMode, MagicPoopCannon, etc.
I first started with the series of dark blue trend lines that, after bitcoin reaches its peak, tend to be broken to the downside until a new support trendline is reached. You'll notice that the slope of these trendlines appear to be getting flatter/less steep over time. These same trendlines then become the overhead resistance and mark the peak of the next cycle. The thick blue vertical lines indicate the dates of past halvings and future estimated halvings. As others have noted in the past, these halving events appear to play a huge role in Bitcoin price movement over time.
I also wanted to create both upper and lower bounding curves in this analysis, to reflect the network growth effect described by Metcalf's Law and the current non-linear regression trend in Bitcoin.
I'm sure I left a bunch out that I wanted to say, but this is my first time doing this. I hope that it has been helpful to you and that you have found something new in this analysis. Thanks for your time. Feel free to leave a like and a comment below..
Hopefully everyone is having a wonderful day! I've been a long-time lurker of this site and thought it might be fun to finally give this thing a go, myself. Cheers, and let me know what you think.
This is not necessarily a new idea by any stretch, but one in which I attempted to create through applying concepts from some of my favorite analysts on the site, filbfilb, @WykoffMode, MagicPoopCannon, etc.
I first started with the series of dark blue trend lines that, after bitcoin reaches its peak, tend to be broken to the downside until a new support trendline is reached. You'll notice that the slope of these trendlines appear to be getting flatter/less steep over time. These same trendlines then become the overhead resistance and mark the peak of the next cycle. The thick blue vertical lines indicate the dates of past halvings and future estimated halvings. As others have noted in the past, these halving events appear to play a huge role in Bitcoin price movement over time.
I also wanted to create both upper and lower bounding curves in this analysis, to reflect the network growth effect described by Metcalf's Law and the current non-linear regression trend in Bitcoin.
I'm sure I left a bunch out that I wanted to say, but this is my first time doing this. I hope that it has been helpful to you and that you have found something new in this analysis. Thanks for your time. Feel free to leave a like and a comment below..
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