BTC BULL CYCLE PREDICTION

14 ธ.ค. 2023

This post is an idea I had about predicting this Bullrun cycle top using the previous cycles pattern.

The general rule of the pattern is:

- Bullcycle last 1065 days
- Bear cycle lasts 365 days

Knowing this we can predict that the end of the Bullrun will be... OCTOBER 2025. Meaning we have 670 days remaining.

Estimating the peak price of BTC is a bit more challenging, we know there are diminishing returns with every complete cycle, the first cycle had a % drop of:

Cycle 1-2 = 97.15%
Cycle 2-3 = 82.14%

By continuing the pattern of percentage drop of 15.01% per cycle, we get:

Cycle 3-4 = 67.13%

Using the previous Cycle % gain of 2,108.27% multiplied by our % drop off we get:

2,108.27*0.6713 =

1,315.24%
or
14.1524x

This then gives you % gain from start of the bull cycle. The bottom was $15,473.7 so...

$15,473.7*14.1524 = $218,989

~ $229,000/BTC CYCLE TOP

Obviously this is all theoretical, I wanted to have a prediction post to look back on after this cycle but also to have a plan to sell long term holdings when price nears this area.

Many aspects of the cryptocurrency world would have changed by October 2025. Mass adoption, ETF's, Regulation and so on will change the landscape of the market, this may be the last cycle of sizable gains before volatility leaves the space.

670 days left to make generational wealth.

4 มี.ค. 2024

บันทึก

Approaching ATH exactly half way through the cycle, historically way ahead of schedule. Amazing progress so far, will keep updating as the Bullrun plays out.

5 มี.ค. 2024

บันทึก

And there it is, A new BTC ALL TIME HIGH!

Can expect some sell pressure here and perhaps a chance for Alts t catch up should BTC consolidate

16 เม.ย. 2024

บันทึก

BTC halving week!

We've hit previous ATH before the halving and have now corrected back under old ATH. After 7 straight months of green candles we're now seeing a pullback halfway through the Bullrun, potentially a consolidation phase before the next leg up?

6 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

Now over 2 years since this post was originally made, it feels like a good time to see where we are in the bigger picture.

This is based off the theory that the bull market will repeat the previous pattern of 1065 days from bottom to top. So with this in mind we are currently 823/1065 days (77.3%) into the bullrun, this means we're in the last quarter of this growth period according to past patterns.

Despite an incredibly disappointing altcoin market BTC is tracking well on the monthly as shown above with a +529%. To reach the estimated top a +129% move from here would need to take place in the last 8 months.

Again just to reiterate this is just a theory and nothing is for certain.
DYOR