Bitcoin - Drop scenario

I am not confident that Bitcoin will grow more than 20k this year or the next year , we are in the same cycle same month when bitcoin reached 19k in 2018 in the same month + we are in a resistance Area .
I'm saying that market do the same things over and over so the probability of a drop toward 12k is possible , institution wouldn't let btc grow more , i'm just saying my opinion ,if you want to buy now dont !
the best scenario to make money is to wait for a big short !
Thanks