H&S for Bitcoin, target 7K

12 ก.พ. 2018

Bitcoin is hesitating to go higher and break the 9K level. It has formed a H&S now. This could be a very good risk reward trade. Conservative trader waits for a break of 7800 for confirmation, an aggressive trader could go short now while being higher in the right shoulder. Stop could be set at 8500,8600 or even 8800. I always adjust the size of my position when i set a target but even more for my stop.
It has shown some strength the last 2 hours, making an attempt to break the 8500, making the right shoulder bigger. A stop is very important, because when this H&S fails, expect a counter trend with a big rally up. A few days ago (see my previous chart) i expected it to go towards the 10K level, but it got sold very quickly at the 9000 levels.The last week it has all been sideways action, fights between bears and bulls (and the whales supporting the price). Longer ter i still expect at least the 6K level again, but probably much lower. But it's difficult to say what happens in between. Could we see 12K again? yes of course, not likely for me but the price development of Bitcoin has surprised me many times before, so why stop now :)

12 ก.พ. 2018

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Its getting more and more the looks of it, that it's trying to rally it's way out of the bearish H&S. Ofcourse i always keep it mind, but i did not expect it to happen this time.

12 ก.พ. 2018

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These rallies do seem to get less strong, the second one towards 8480 got dropped very quickly to 8280 and the next rally (until now) only got 20 points higher. Still hanging against the high so thats strong, but the jumps are getting weaker. Overal , it's very difficult to say now. That's why a plan upfront is very important!

13 ก.พ. 2018

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It went through my stop obviously. I went short again just now, with a stop around 9000/9100. I was away most of the day, now when i look at what happened most of the day, It feels to much like a forced rally if you ask me. Especially now, why would it even hessitate when it's at the 9000 level again. If it was a natural way (normal buyers) the moves would be different, it would turn slowly from the 8K lows up, and we would see an acceleration when it would get close to the 8800/9000 and would see a big break out of the 9.000

13 ก.พ. 2018

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It should drop towards the 8500 because of this wedge, there i will close half my position because i don't want to get up in the manipulation again. Those moves from yesterday were obviously not normal! making small 200/300 point rallies and than going sideways to repeat the same again. Looking so strong, it should have been a piece of cake to break the 9K.

13 ก.พ. 2018

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13 ก.พ. 2018

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I have added again, looks like an H&S now, could go towards 8000 again, if it stays below the green area.

13 ก.พ. 2018

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It has fallen through several support lines now. Should go minimum to 8000. But being careful of course, overal stop around 8600. Its almost faling out of the bearish flag it has made just now

13 ก.พ. 2018

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And of course did not fall out of the flag :) LOL. I think they try to bore everyone out, people with long positions AND short positions. When the stakes are much lower, direction will be chosen. For now it has made another higher low. Small trades are still possible now, 100 to 300 points, but for the bigger rides, best to wait for a break of the 8000 or 9000.
For now its hanging on a small support line, if it drops through we could go towards the 8400 again. There it should stay up above it for the short term (for the bulls). If it drops below it could go towards the 8000 again. I actually don't want to mention any targets for now, because it's obvious impossible to predict

14 ก.พ. 2018

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Finally a break out :) Now it's making a flag, could see another big jump.

14 ก.พ. 2018

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The big bullish H&S i showed a week ago, the break of the neckline is with volume and with an acceleration