Long term resistance breaker Bingo

6 days till Weekly close
Confirmed candle: 5.5 of 9 points
Unconfirmed candle: 7 of 9 points

Each technical condition can be 0, 0.5 or 1 points.

Daily chart:
It did test the 19k price and got a strong support move back into the long term resistance trendline.

4h chart:

If not, worst case long term is somewhere around 9-7k to find the absolute depression. While hang-up on bottom fishing.

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Worst case chart on Monthly chart:
4 of 9 points

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Converting points into percent chance of a price increase.
Above convert to:
Monthly: 44 %
Weekly Confirmed candle: 61 %
Weekly Unconfirmed candle: 78 %
Daily: 56 %

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Updates on the Daily and 4h charts with:
- Daily unconfirmed candle 33 %
- 4h unconfirmed candle 44 %

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A bad habit of being too cautious of unconfirmed potential data.
- 4h confirmed into 56 %
- new Daily unconfirmed 39 %

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Misread of monthly data, correct chance: 67 %
Confirmed weekly: 72 %
Confirmed daily: 44 %
Confirmed 4h: 56 %

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New confirmed closes
Monthly: 56 %
Weekly: 72 %
Daily: 28 %

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New confirmed closes
Weekly: 83 % (at major resistance, likely to form a bullflag)
Daily: 33 %

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As expected some pullback from the major resistance zone.
New confirmed closes:
- Weekly: 50 %
- Daily: 33 %
- 4h: 56 %

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Unconfirmed 44 % on Potential Chart Pattern Chart
Snap:

Chart:

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Monthly (67%) Linear to Log Scale Side by Side:
 

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Not much change, the Price Action was within the expected.
Weekly Confirmed 44%:

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Did more or less the expected price action so far as mention on Apr 17 comment
Weekly 33 or 39 % | depends on how we calculate the mixed signals.

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No update last weekly close because either market move is possible from the current price structure. And many possible psychological state model pattern fit too, like e.g. the good ol'sucker rally.
Or in other words: Too many variables to make a calculated guess.
Yet that to be said, I still trade as usual on Bitcoin Futures and hold around 11% of my portfolio in cryptocurrencies while having no interest in selling for neither greed nor fear.
Also the time around to go out and touch some grass. A vacation as some call it.
A high number of the combined indicator values at support price levels yet still mean a possible great long opportunity.
log to linear:

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Absolute beautiful textbook bullish trend pattern outcome on the Daily. Weekly may follow.

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Pattern Update

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Pattern Update

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Important Update on the Volume Pattern

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New weekly close.
Keep the 'volume pattern' and the 'repetition pattern' ideas in mind.
*Adjusted the priceline drawing at 31.7k

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Important repetition patterns to indicator value levels.
Daily:

Weekly:
- Volume pattern
- MACD TORYS trendzone (!)

*Added priceline at 37.6k

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Candle of the above comment is still open. A repainting is possible.

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Both Weekly and Monthly timeframes still look strong but first indications of weakness appear on the open weekly candle with a current lower high and a decreasing macd histogram.
Weekly snap:

Daily (9 hour till close):

I did take profits and recommend it. Yet, I think it is always better to bet on the collective human greed rather than its fear.

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Daily is conflicting:

Weekly closed with weakness indications:

If the weekly follows down the curved yellow, then I for sure will be there as support, when the numbers seem right.

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with 'conflicting' I mean technical indications with opposing signals

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how bull market works, simplified: youtu.be/0SYEpE95f7c

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Potential seagull riding on another seagull breakout on the Daily:

Weekly is concerning but the idea is called Resistance Breaker afterall:

Monthly view on it is what it is:

*Added priceline at 48222.96

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Potential weekly correction setup that matches the date of the bold idea of 'timing the market'.
*1d12h till weekly close

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Weekly Resistance Retest Chart

Monthly Snap +5d till close