Will Santa Bring Bitcoin? Tracking Crypto Trends Each December

18 ธ.ค.

As the festive season draws near, Bitcoin traders often wonder: is December a gift-giving month for the OG crypto or one where Santa skips the BTC chimney altogether?

Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s December performance has varied wildly — from record-setting rallies to stomach-churning corrections.

But this year, the festive cheer in the crypto world is particularly jolly.

Bitcoin BTCUSD has smashed through the $100,000 mark, Ethereum ETHUSD is dancing above $4,000, and the markets are buzzing with speculation about lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and crypto-friendly policies from Donald Trump’s White House.

Before we spill what we know about this Christmas’s crypto miracles, let’s take a trip down memory lane, tracking Bitcoin's price moves for each December over the past 10 years.

Bitcoin’s December Performance: A 10-Year Recap

2013: A Frosty End to the First Big Rally

❆ Start of December: ~$1,000
❆ End of December: ~$750 (-25%)

Bitcoin was coming off its first significant bull run, fueled by very early retail and media hype. The exuberance didn’t last as profit-taking and concerns over Mt. Gox’s solvency sent prices tumbling.

2014: A Crypto Winter Christmas

❆ Start of December: ~$375
❆ End of December: ~$320 (-15%)

2014 was a tough year for Bitcoin. The infamous Mt. Gox hack earlier had crushed investor confidence, and the December sell-off reflected broader pessimism about crypto's future.

2015: A Subtle Santa Rally

❆ Start of December: ~$360
❆ End of December: ~$430 (+19%)

After a year of consolidation, Bitcoin ended 2015 on a positive note. December brought renewed optimism, with the first whispers of institutional interest starting to surface.

2016: The Calm Before the Storm

❆ Start of December: ~$740
❆ End of December: ~$960 (+30%)

This was the beginning of Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream consciousness. A steady rally through December set the stage for the parabolic run of 2017.

2017: Deck the Halls With All-Time Highs

❆ Start of December: ~$10,800
❆ End of December: ~$14,000 (+30%)

Bitcoin mania hit fever pitch as it reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000 mid-month. However, the rally fizzled by year-end, signaling the start of a brutal bear market.

2018: Coal in the Stocking

❆ Start of December: ~$4,000
❆ End of December: ~$3,800 (-5%)

The post-2017 bubble burst was in full swing. By December, Bitcoin was down nearly 80% from its peak, and the market was entrenched in a bear trend.

2019: A Neutral Noel

❆ Start of December: ~$7,500
❆ End of December: ~$7,200 (-4%)

This year saw modest losses in December as Bitcoin remained range-bound following a mid-year rally that fizzled out.

2020: A Festive Bull Run

❆ Start of December: ~$19,500
❆ End of December: ~$29,000 (+48%)

The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated Bitcoin adoption as institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal jumped in. December capped off a historic year with a near 50% rally.

2021: Bitcoin on the Naughty List

❆ Start of December: ~$57,000
❆ End of December: ~$46,000 (-19%)

Despite starting strong, December 2021 saw Bitcoin slide as macroeconomic fears around inflation and Fed tapering weighed on risk assets.

2022: The Crypto Winter Lingers

❆ Start of December: ~$17,000
❆ End of December: ~$16,500 (-3%)

The collapse of FTX in November left the crypto market reeling. With investor confidence shattered, Bitcoin struggled to recover, hovering near its bear-market lows.

2023: A Recovery Year

❆ Start of December: ~$40,000
❆ End of December: ~$42,500 (+6%)

With the market recovering from the harsh crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily throughout the year, culminating in December's moderate gains.

Bitcoin ended 2023 on a modestly bullish note, driven by renewed optimism around regulatory developments and institutional interest, especially around the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that would launch in January 2024.

Final Days of 2024: A December to Remember?

Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable, with the OG cryptocurrency trading above $108,000 — a new all-time high. December’s price action will likely hinge on several key factors:

1️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 18. This has already fueled risk-on sentiment, but a surprise decision to hold rates could spark a possible sell-off.

2️⃣ Institutional Demand: Big-shot investors have continued to pour into Bitcoin in 2024, with the genuine Bitcoin ETFs accumulating more than $100 billion in assets.

3️⃣ Market Sentiment: After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin’s psychological momentum is strong. Traders are eyeing $125,000 as the next target, though volatility could lead to sharp corrections.

4️⃣ Donald Trump: The sheer power concentrated in one man — President-elect has vowed to support the growth of the crypto industry through a Bitcoin strategic reserve, lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs on US imports. Bullishness is truly in the air heading into 2025.

What’s Under the Tree for Crypto in 2025?

Looking ahead, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains bullish. The combination of institutional, business and consumer adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a macroeconomic environment that continues to favor risk assets sets the stage for further growth. While $108,000 is impressive, many believe it’s just the beginning of Bitcoin’s next chapter.

As we wrap up 2024, one thing is clear: the crypto market never takes a holiday (or any days off). Whether the Fed today delivers a rate cut or not, traders can expect plenty of action as we head into the new year. So, grab your hot cocoa, keep your TradingView app handy, and enjoy the ride.

Happy holidays, and may your trades be merry and bright!