BTC bearish sentiment, and my thoughts

This bull market started in Jan 2023, and it has risen an incredible 330% from that date.
There is a lot of real world adoption on BTC, but there are some worrying signs that have forced me to become risk off.

Firstly, on the FIB levels - if the price holds above the 0.236 level - it is my opinion that the bull market is still intact and we shall see higher prices.
There are still 3 days to go to close this weeks candle, but as it stands the price has retraced to $57800 which falls below the 236 level - being around 60k.

The comical McDonalds sign is a structure familiar to crypto traders, where there is a loss of steam in the bullish momentum. This is what the 2021 bull market looked like at the two peaks - and this was the structure that lead to the bear market of 2022-2023.

The bullish momentum stalled, moving the market from a trending market to a range between 72k and 60k, and bearish divergence was formed on 25 march. This does not mean that price can go higher, but it does mean that the momentum has slowed down.

We struggled to move above the 72k, and put in a lower high while the RSI was rejected below the RSI MA.
As someone who bases most of my analysis on the RSI, I was forced to derisk a lot at this point.
Since the price is currently below the range, and I am seeing little bullish sentiment on the price - i am getting flash backs from the previous cycles - and I have closed most of my positions on crypto and alts.

Now while there is a lot of adoption for BTC, people buying, ETFs, Mr100 buying 100 btc a day - there are also bearish things happening - such as the MtGox distribution of BTC.

The saying that it is always darkest before its dawn rings true here, and I suspect that price could revcover in the next 3 days - and if BTC holds above the 62k mark this will look like a great reversal candle.
However, as my strategy is to try not to lose as much as I can, I have opted to de-risk.

The RSI is dropping sharpley, and the MA is angled downwards.
This is the negative sentiment in the market that worries me.
You see many have realized the 4 year cycle of BTC, and BTC pumped to ATH before the halving - the first time this has happened. This i believe is the market front running the supply shock.

Now something intesting happened during covid, all asset prices dropped like a stone - and then the US money printer and the worlds money printers went wild - printing 80% of all the USD we have in our system today. This meant that asset prices went through the roof.

I think that we are on the verge of something similar today.
The NASDAQ and other major stock markets are putting in ATH after ATH, while any drop in the DXY doesnt provide relief to the price of BTC.
This is strange, and I can only see 2 outcomes.
1) The stock market is correct, and BTC and Crypto will increase to catch up.
or 2) The Crypto is correct, and there is a potential blow off top happening in stock markets - meaning that he stock market will drop...
Now the safer option for me is to be derisked. And once the market starts showing signs of strength re-enter.
Because if the stock market corrects, and Crypto is already at supports - the drop will hurt crypto much worse.

If we end the week below the 236, this is what i think will happen:
The 50ma is the red line. This is a popular MA and as a general rule - if the price is above we are bullish, if we are below we are bearish.
I would expect a retest of this - coming in around 52k.
If this does not hold, the next level is around 44k. I will be DCAing into BTC between these levels. BTC only.

If we recover above 62k, alts will rise - probably too quickly for me to get good entries back in.
I still have my DCA portfolios, and I do not plan to sell these until we are at the top.

Remember that we have the US elections coming up later this year, and crypto is going to be a hotly debated topic - as Trump has shown his support for it. The 4 year cycle is still intact, and from what I can see is that the cycle has not reached the top on the Pi cycle top, MRVZ score also not at the top.

So in short, if you are holding risky shit, its probably time to reconsider your life choices.
The market will recover, the Alt Season never began (incredible right). These things are still coming. I suspect the reason that the major alts did not run is because of all the new tokens being released daily - and the attention towards meme coins has stolen market share from the truely valuable alts. A bear market is the only thing that can sort out the trash unfortunately.

So in summary, I have de-risked. BTC cycle isnt over, it will recover. I think that the good alt coins will still have their day. There is a lot of bullish things coming out and my conviction in BTC long term has not changed.

I am looking to re-enter as soon as the RSI starts to recover.