Weak bulls are taking profit at the highs

23 ก.ค. 2018

So today we saw a second attempt of the bulls to break this heavy resistance zone around the 7500/7800, but again it failed. There was some heaving shorting going on at Bitmex today, selling volume kept popping in and when the price was getting to close at to the breakout some 2 mil and 4 mil sell orders were thrown in to keep control of this market. I am quite convinced it's the same people who have been playing these games for a few months now AND the same people who (tried) to do it at the 6800 a week ago. But they clearly failed that time, because buying volume was much higher. 2 reasons, it was Monday (working day) and it of course the price much lower (so less risk) than it is now. Buying here needs much more confidence of course. Since Alts are not backing up the bullish sentiment, it's more difficult of course to attract buyers into the current price levels.

This manipulated move we saw today can have to 2 options
- just to much people taking profit here AND bears just shorting too much and the market is not ready for a break of the resistance
- this was just a long shake out, to scare weak bulls out of their long positions and to continue up without them

In the bullish scenario there is still room for a drop to around 7100 even, something that could happen should not be seen as a sell off right away. Positive note for the bulls at the moment, they keep the price close to the resistance and because of that their showing they are not yet ready to give up. So the longer we stay at the 7400/7500 levels, the more confidence the bulls will probably get, to finally push through that resistance. At the moment we are getting some confirmation of this scenario, thats because the price got bought around the 7350 level again, even though the dump was so massive. It shows that it either was just a plan (long shake out as i mentioned before) or bulls are not scared at all and just start to buy again like nothing happened and are happy they got a second chance to get in around these prices again.

But, the price is still moving in a bear flag zone, so we still need to be aware. Next to that, we need to see some improvement and confidence in the Alts. We need that to have more bullish sentiment in this market which can create more confidence for buyers to get in again AND of course to create what the whole crypto market is build on, FOMO.

So at the moment, the mid-term bullish scenario is slightly in favor IMO, but only slightly. We just need to show some patience and see what will happend the next few days.

Previous analysis

23 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Okay, one good thing at the moment, that bear flag i talked about, is to big at the moment to be considered a flag. But bearish thing is, so far it has just been a retest of the former upwards channel. So no clear sign yet, unless bulls can push it back into that channel again, otherwise we could see a retest of the 7350ish

24 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Here we can see how leveraged longs on Bitfinex has pushed the price higher, but just as quickly closed most of the longs as well. So seems normal buyers without leverage stepped it to take over from where these people took profit. The charts are looking quite bullish for Bitcoin, but for alts it's still a horror sorry. Making a jump up and, but it gets sold off just as quick.
Volume confirms the breakout of Bitcoin, the 7800 resistance broke, so the road to more upside has opened. This does not mean we go in a straight line, even though resistance broke, it could still drop and test some support again before going op. But as bullish as bitcoin is the last week or so, would be unlikely to see it drop below the 7500ish. Even at the moment it's making a small bull flag after the rally it today, like it already want to reach it's target of around 8300.

24 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Think the only selling pressure now is just allot of profit taking around these levels. Targets around 8300/8400 are very close, maybe some just don't want to risk to wait for those prices. Alts are still just completely dead, at the least the ones i have seen. So even this 8K break didn't help.

Bulls are really keeping the pressure on now, so thats a good sign for Bitcoin!

24 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Anything can hapen here, still very bullish, bulls are still pushing, but volume is getting less so it's slowly entering a danger zone now. After the big rally we have had since the 6100, it will only be a matter of time until we see a correction down, could be here, could be at 8800 even (or whatever). The current movements i see as a FOMO rally. People who were bearish until the break of 7800, now turning bullish and FOMO buying. Usually where smart money starts to take some profit. Bullish signs is, that at least some alts are showing sings of life, so maybe, just maybe we can see a start of the alt season again. But Still way to soon to tell at the moment.

25 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Bulls are going full throttle, not stopping them.If this triangle is a real one, the target was just hit, but it's does't matter to the bulls they just keep on buying and buying. I have to admit, i underestimated the strength of the Bitcoin bulls. I thought it was too soon because the alts were still not really backing up the sentiment. But looks like all eyes are on bitcoin at the moment. Don't think it's possible to pin point a resistance, because nobody seems to care about resistance levels at the moment. Even though the chances are very high a high for now has been set, but no way i would even think about shorting it here.

25 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Just to give you guys a heads up of what might happen, so don't get scared, probably wont happen. Unless we see a quick drop to 8100, then this could be in play. So just to give you an idea of what COULD go on if we do make that drop.

25 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Probably headed to 8000/7950, H&S got triggered

26 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Think there is a chance the low is set now, but heavy dump, so maybe can retest 7750 as well, but don't think we will just see a massive drop right away. So even when the rally is over, would still need to see a retest of 8100/8300

27 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Now we have confirmation of course for the low, biggest challenge now will be the 8200/8300 zone, if that breaks, we can see another rally, otherwise this will only be a correction for another wave down

27 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Bulls are very strong withing the resistance zone now, bears keep selling here but the bulls keep the pressure high on them. If they manage to push through the 8300, we could see a big rally again. Want to say maybe the alts will follow, but they are complete crap, still!!

27 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

Still looking good, bulls seem to be preparing for a second attempt to break the 8300, could see a big pump if it breaks, but be aware of a fake break out with a bull shake out. We have seen it more than enough, the whales love to play games.

28 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

If they can push it above the neckline of this small inverse H&S, the shake out woud probably be confirmed and we should go towards the 8280/8300 to try and break it for real.

29 ก.ค. 2018

ความคิดเห็น

The bulls are pushing again, and from the looks of it, they will probably succeed if they keep the price above the 8250 the coming half hour. I can see some clear selling pressure trying to keep the price below the 8300, but probably once that level breaks, we could see another rally up. If the 8250ish breaks, we will probably go sideways for another day.
A break of 8300ish should trigger this inverse H&S with a target around 8650