Bitcoin /Dollar - BTCUSD -Daily - Two Scenarios from here $375

Sell signal given at $383 and fell to a low of $350 afterwards. So far, so good, but now the price isn't holding down near $350 and time is building under the current price = bullish.

If the price can stay above the yellow box for the entire day, then it will be day 1 of a 5-day rally. The "mode" of the entire decline has fallen from 410 (9-days) to 380 (now 10-days), which is a bearish event, but the stop tightens up to 380 to define the downtrend and keep it in a downtrend long term. If the price climbs over 380 for an entire session it will turn into a bull market and yield upside targets of 480 for the near term.

If the bear market is to continue - the price needs to drop immediately down under the $350 level. Every moment it spends over the $350 level is bullish and makes scenario 2 look more likely.

So, sorry for the double-scenario here, but the short signal worked very nicely initially with a $33 or 9% drop in 1 day. Now the risk is a move over today's high.

Follow this closely - and see how to trade the trend with "TIME AT MODE" by following these posts.

NOTE: Still short, and you can add to shorts with a $349 stop and a $280 target. Lower stop on shorts to breakeven at $383. Sad to give back all of those quick, nice gains.

Tim 10/11/2014 10:28PM EST