BTC Update Monthly Close SEPT

2 ต.ค. 2022

September was an important month for BTC as it finally broke below the bear flag channel that it formed off the June lows.

Things to note:
- Aug & Sept monthly candles both closed BELOW the 50EMA
- unable to get back inside the BF channel since it broke down from it late August
- June low @ 17.6K has held so far, but Dow, S&P & Nasdaq have ALL made lower lows, indicating that the cryptos may not be far behind (all markets move together)
- the 100EMA is the next major support level @ 12.6K

My relief rally target to the upside is @ the 50EMA + the BF support line @ 22K - 23K.

Bear targets:
- Bear target #1 test June low as support @ 17.6k
- 100EMA support level @ 12.6K (could be the bottom so let's keep an open mind)
- Bear target #2 BF measured move @ 9k
- Macro bottom range $6,500 - $9,500

It wouldn't surprise me to see a quick move lower this week, followed by a bounce/relief rally into mid-October.
I'm still thinking we set a tradable bottom by the end of Oct/early Nov.
Cheers