How did bitcoin react on the past 3 bear cycles after bullishDIV

we have started some bullish momentum to start the new year! (on the weekly, so this will take some time to play out)

Comparing the 2014-15, 2018-19 cycle with the 2022 bear cycle

Measured 427 days (this week)
the previous 2 drops have had a retracement of 85%, and we are currently only at 76%. An 85% drop would take BTC to around $10 000.

previously, the 50 ma did not cross the 200 - however unless bitcoin makes a serious gain in the near future we are probably looking at a death cross which has never happened before.

The RSI similarities
downward trendline has been broken
there is upward momentum

The Vumanchu indicator is also showing some bullish divergence currently

So I am bullish for 2023
There will be ups and downs!
A possible rally now, or a drop probably relating to macro factors (fomc/inflation/stock market)
But a likely drop to lower levels by May/June-ish