Three paths ahead

Three potential outcomes (excl. a doomsday nuke).

I think bearish sentiment is close to peaking, which can either mean:
a) countertrade bullishly
b) capitulation into a multi-year bear market

Traditional markets are likely to show near term strength, but BTC is showing relative weakness against the SPX which concerns me. If BTC continues to show weakness, and makes it way to 33-34k, I will be looking to short the bounce back to 40-42k.

Currently in an ETH short from 3400+ which I will only release if:
i) BTC > 45.1k with conviction; OR
ii) We bounce from 33-34k and I will look to re-short at 3k-3.1k

Feedback is most welcome.
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