• Cleaned up version of the previous analysis of BTCUSD’s macro trends; renamed as the BTCUSD Four Seasons to give it some personality.
• WIP. Subsequent updates will contain living lists of 1) assumptions; 2) falsified hypotheses; 3) hypotheses currently being tested; 4) potential hypotheses that may be tested in the future.
• There appears to be 4 distinct phases in each BTCUSD bullrun. These are: 1) C_Winter; 2) C_Spring; 3) C_Summer; and 4) C_Fall.
• C_Winter (the penguin) starts from the 2nd BTCUSD peak per bullrun and ends at the next halving event. C_Winter bottoms above the 0.382 of C_Summer. Overall volatility, as measured by ATR, drops compared to that during C_Summer, but as the market trends downwards, there is not much news in MSM. Winter is a good time to replenish long-term stores and a bad time for adventure. DCA in BTC between 0.382-0.500 of C_Summer.
• C_Spring (the leaf) starts from the halving event and ends at the 1.618 of C_Winter. BTC.D tends to drop ~2months from the start of C_Spring. Overall volatility increases compared to that during C_Winter, but as the market trends upwards, news is positive. Spring is the time to plant after the frost has melted. DCA 50% of BTC out into ETH and OTHERS.
• C_Summer (the Sun) starts from the 1.618 of C_Winter and ends at the 4.236 of C_Winter. We see BTCUSD’s 1st peak, which is heralded by BTCUSD’s monthly RSI hitting the multi-year trendline. C_Summer bottoms around the 1.618 of C_Winter. Overall volatility decreases compared to that during C_Spring, but as there are more new investors, news is gloomy. Summer is the time for fun so as to recharge for harvest. Watch BTCUSD’s monthly RSI and DCA out BTC, ETH and OTHERS. Look for BTCUSD’s recovery from bottom, *only then* DCA in BTC, ETH and OTHERS. It may be a good time to engage in mid-term trades for OTHERS, with the overall aim of adding to ETH. Get out of OTHERS by 4.236 of C_Winter.
• C_Fall (the apple) starts from the 4.236 of C_Winter and ends at the 2nd BTCUSD peak, which is heralded by BTCUSD’s monthly RSI hitting the 2nd multi-year trendline. Overall volatility increases compared to that during C_Summer, but as BTCUSD trends upwards, the news is effervescent. Fall is the time for an explosion of activity and harvest; it is also the season when things often die. C_Fall tends to be the shortest amongst the four seasons. Get out of OTHERS into ETH for this reason. While watching BTCUSD’s monthly RSI, DCA out of BTC and ETH. Keep an eye on Belford’s Law.
Disclaimer 1: Anything I write about is NOT investment advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I’m not responsible for any of the gains and/or losses of your investments.
Disclaimer 2: I have mild dysgraphia, and I write in a rather formulaic manner to overcome this disability.