BTC update

17 เม.ย. 2018

Just as predicted in my last post, we see BTC making a little run, almost completing wave A of the correction. I genuinely believe that BTC will first start making its way down again in form of wave B when BTC has touched the upper big blue downtrend line, the point were the smaller 5th wave would end, roughly around the 8600-8700 area. Breaking the yellow trend line before even getting close to the big downtrend line seems unlikely. Once we touched the big downtrend line, I'm almost certain we will see a momentum divergence to the downside. The timing doesn't feel right to see BTC break out of the big downtrend that started back in December after hitting 20k. I'm not just saying that because of the Elliot wave correction that I predicted, I just dont see enough confidence in the market for now; besides the one crazy jump on 12.4 the bulls have not really shown any signs of gaining much strength.
Wave B is going to be very interesting to watch. It cannot retrace more than the 6500-6700 area, otherwise the ABC-correction fails and we would see a breakout of the other big blue trend line (where waveB ends). A breakout to this side would be very problematic, I'd see BTC then going at least all the way down below 6k, where we find another point of major support.
Despite this scenario, I feel very confidence in BTC long-term, I also think an outbreak to the downside seems highly unlikely, given that 6700 has been such a strong support recently.