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Analysis of Wyckoff Accumulation Models and Prediction of BTC

ที่อัปเดต:

I have been closely following two models of accumulation: Wyckoff Events and Phases, specifically Accumulation #1 and Accumulation #2.

Accumulation #1: Wyckoff Events and Phases is a model that describes the different stages that a market goes through during an accumulation phase. These stages include the Spring, the Test, the Upthrust, and the Markup. In this model, the Spring is the point at which the market reaches its lowest point, and a potential reversal is on the horizon. The Test is where the market tests the Spring's lows and forms a higher low, indicating that a new uptrend is forming. The Upthrust is where the market rises above the previous high but ultimately fails to sustain this level. Finally, the Markup is where the market rallies and moves higher in a sustained uptrend.

Accumulation #2: Wyckoff Events and Phases is another model that describes the market's behavior during an accumulation phase. This model follows a similar progression to Accumulation #1 but with some key differences. The first difference is that it includes a preliminary support level, which is a level below the Spring where buyers start accumulating the asset. The second difference is that it includes a Last Point of Support, which is the final level of support that holds the market up before the Markup begins.

Currently, I am closely monitoring the market's behavior as it approaches the liquidation zones. Based on my analysis, I am sticking to my plan of events and expect the market to withdraw and drop the target to the area of $15500 - $14000. I will continue to closely watch Bitcoin's price action and adjust my strategy accordingly.

DXY:

Bitcoin:

SP500 - 2023

SP500 - 2008

SP500:

In the next few years, it is expected that cryptocurrency regulations and taxes will become more prevalent, which may lead many people to leave centralized exchanges due to account blocks and the inability to prove the source of their funds. Uniswap and DyDx are predicted to be the leading trading platforms in the near future. However, Ethereum may also face tighter regulations, resulting in wallet blocks for USDT, USDC, Ethereum, and other tokens. If such a scenario occurs, anonymous coins such as Monero, Litecoin (mimble wimble), and Bitcoin with the Taproot system could become a new trend. We will need to observe how the situation unfolds.

In addition, high inflation worldwide may cause Bitcoin to reach a price of $250,000 in the next couple of years.

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Dow Jones:

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I'm looking to buy Atom in a long position and since the situation with USDC has stabilized, I want to take precautions and hedge myself in case there are any unexpected changes that could cause me to miss out on potential growth.

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On March 15, 2023, according to the forecasts of ChatGPT, there will be a collapse of banks in the USA. We will be watching.

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⚡️ Key events for this week:

Monday, March 13
🇺🇸 USA - Consumer Inflation Expectations - 6:00 PM EST
🔥 USA - Daylight Saving Time Begins - 4:30 PM EST

Tuesday, March 14
🇨🇭 Switzerland - Producer Price Index (Feb) - 4:30 AM EST
🔥 USA - Consumer Price Index (Feb) - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Redbook Retail Sales Index (YoY) - 8:55 AM EST

Wednesday, March 15
🇺🇸 USA - Speech by Bowman (FED) - 12:20 AM EST
🇯🇵 Minutes from Bank of Japan Policy Meeting - 1:50 AM EST
🇨🇳 China - Industrial Production (Feb) - 5:00 AM EST
🇪🇺 EU - Industrial Production (Jan) - 5:00 AM EST
🔥 USA - Producer Price Index (Feb) - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) - 8:30 AM EST
🔥 USA - Retail Sales (Feb) - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Business Inventories (Jan) - 10:00 AM EST

Thursday, March 16
🇺🇸 USA - Housing Starts (Feb) - 8:30 AM EST
🔥 USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Import/Export Prices Index - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) - 8:30 AM EST
🇪🇺 EU - ECB Interest Rate Decision - 11:45 AM EST
🇪🇺 EU - ECB Press Conference - 12:30 PM EST
🇪🇺 Speech by C. Lagarde - 2:15 PM EST

Friday, March 17
🇪🇺 EU - Consumer Price Index (Feb) - 8:00 AM EST
🇨🇦 Canada - Producer Price Index (Feb) - 8:30 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Industrial Production (Feb) - 9:15 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Consumer Sentiment (Mar-prelim) - 10:00 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar) - 10:00 AM EST
🇺🇸 USA - Leading Economic Indicators Index (Feb) - 10:00 AM EST

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Closed ATOM/USDT

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Treasuries Long Positions Sold Off Amidst Uncertainty in Federal Reserve's Rate Policy

💰💸📈 After a 3% gap up at the open, Treasuries long positions were sold all day. Check out the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) here:

💼💰💼 It was an intriguing day for Treasuries long positions. Eventually, they were sold off, and the entire day's gains were erased. Their future prospects are not that obvious.

💸💹💸 If the Federal Reserve stops raising rates, and especially if they begin to lower them, what will happen with inflation? It will start rising again, and with it, yields on long-term government bonds. Inflation is not subdued, let alone anchored. That's why we saw a powerful surge in the precious metals sector today, as it is very sensitive to real rates in the economy as well as the easing of bond yields.

💰💸💰 The new crisis will be different from previous ones in that the major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, will be tied up and unable to flood everything with money. Can you imagine how easy it would have been to solve the current problems with regional American banks a year and a half ago when the Fed was printing $120 billion a month? But now, everything is complicated, which is why there is such a fuss among American authorities.

💹💸💹 In conditions of maximum inflation in 40 years, you can't just pour money on everything. Well, you can, but then the flames of inflation will blaze even higher, and then an even higher level of rates will be required to extinguish it. The cost of the issue will become even higher. It's a vicious circle.

💰💻💹 Bitcoin:

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I decided to try shorting Solana as the cryptocurrency looks very weak.

SOL/BTC

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Bitcoin:

🙃

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SOL/USDT:

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🩸🦢 BANKING BLACK SWAN EVENT IS IN FULL SWING!

✔️ Shares of the US banking sector are rapidly declining.

✔️ Two more banks are under pressure: Western Alliance and First Republic.

✔️ VIX (fear indicator) has jumped to a 4-month high

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I answered the question about the possible reasons for Bitcoin's decline, and I mentioned TLT above. Today and tomorrow seem to be hot days, especially tomorrow. It's very interesting to see what will happen on March 15-16, 2023:::::::

The black swan event is currently taking place in the banking industry, and as a result, Bitcoin may not be able to withstand the pressure and start to decline. The domino effect of banks collapsing has already begun in the United States.

First Republic Bank (FRC)

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)

Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB)

Therefore, we need to consider the risk that Bitcoin may not be able to withstand the pressure. The news about Binance buying Bitcoin and Ethereum is just a way to stir up interest in Bitcoin and ETH. "Buy the rumor, sell the fact."

This works as follows: A rumor emerges that a company is doing well and that the report will be positive. Along with it, people who want to profit from this event appear. The first positions are opened, and the price receives an initial boost. The more information we have, the more people are interested, and the higher the price goes. Then, we have the following possible scenarios:

The rumor is confirmed. The report is indeed excellent. At the time of the news release, the price of the shares reaches its peak due to the already high expectations and then, most often, goes into correction. Everyone is satisfied, and it's a standard situation.
The rumor is partially confirmed. The report is indeed good, but not as good as investors expected. In this case, exaggerated expectations play a negative role for the asset, and the price often goes down.
The rumor is not confirmed, and the report is bad. Everyone starts frantically closing positions, opening shorts, and the price drops rapidly.
Sometimes, the following situations occur: The rumor is confirmed, but there was already so much information that the price was already overheated. And when official data is released, investors start taking profits en masse, and the asset price reverses. In other words, the asset falls on positive news.

In general, markets are driven by expectations. And here's an important pattern: the earlier you enter, the more you earn. Accordingly, the risks are also higher.

🙅‍♂️ This is not financial advice, everyone makes their own decisions about what to do.

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Stop Loss SOL/USDT

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💸 The predicted collapse of banks by the artificial intelligence ChatGPT on March 15, 2023, appears to be materializing. It seems that American regional banks have indeed infected their European counterparts, and the epidemic has now spread to Europe.

💰 The euro has depreciated by 1.7% against the dollar, the most significant drop among major currencies. On average, European stock markets have lost over 3%, suggesting that the American regional banking epidemic is turning into a pandemic. It seems that this is only the beginning.

💸 The yield on 2-year Treasuries has plummeted below 4%. On March 8th, they were yielding over 5%, but today, they sit at 3.85%.

📈 The increasing demand for short Treasuries indicates that the system is facing significant problems. Powell will likely need to abandon his plans to raise interest rates and instead consider reducing them. Fighting inflation may also have to be put on hold.

💼 The situation is alarming, and it is crucial that the authorities take decisive action to stabilize the markets and prevent further damage. The global economy is at a crossroads, and the choices made today will have far-reaching consequences for years to come.

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📉 #BigShort: Michael Burry Tweets About Impending Crisis

🔍 In a recent tweet, Michael Burry has likened the current situation to the panic of 1907, which saw a massive run on banks and trusts. Back then, there was no central bank to provide liquidity, and it was left to J.P. Morgan to convince the major players to end the chaos.

📈 The situation today may not be identical, but there are certainly parallels to be drawn. Market volatility, uncertainty about central bank policy, and fears of economic instability have all contributed to a sense of unease among investors.

💰 The big question now is whether the major players will step in to prevent a full-blown crisis. Will history repeat itself, and will someone step up to convince the market to calm down? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the stakes are high, and the consequences of inaction could be severe.

MichaelJBurry: "In October 1907, Knickerbocker Trust failed due to risky bets, sparking a panic. Two others soon failed, and it spread. When a run began on a healthy Trust, J.P. Morgan made a stand. 3 weeks later the Panic resolved & markets bottomed.

A stand was made this past weekend."

🏛️ "Causes and Consequences of the 1907 Banking Panic"

The 1907 banking panic was a brief financial crisis in the United States that occurred in the early 20th century. It was brought on by the collapse of speculative investments made with high levels of borrowed funds, encouraged by the easy money policy pursued by the U.S. Treasury in the preceding years. This led to runs on New York banks and trust companies, which had financed these risky investments, and a contraction of liquidity in the stock market, as smaller regional banks relied on their deposits in New York banks. Without a central bank to turn to, leading financiers, such as John Pierpont Morgan, intervened and put their own money at stake to rescue surviving Wall Street banks and other financial institutions.

🌉 This event served as a catalyst for the creation of the Aldrich Commission and the infamous Jekyll Island meeting in Georgia, where the foundations for the Federal Reserve System were laid. The key moments of the 1907 panic included excessive speculative investments, which led to a crisis in financial markets, brought about by easy credit. The absence of a government central bank forced the U.S. financial markets to be rescued through the use of personal funds, guarantees, and leading financiers and investors, including John Pierpont Morgan and John Davison Rockefeller.

👥 The panic of 1907 gave impetus to plans to strengthen government oversight and public responsibility for saving financial markets. This led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System a few years later, which pursued three main objectives: to serve as a lender of last resort, to act as a financial agent for the U.S. government, and to function as a clearinghouse. The 1907 panic exposed several problems with the 1864 National Bank Act, chief among them being that the law did not apply to all banks.

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My Opinion:

Task 1:
Eliminate small regional banks.

Task 2:
Leave only three large banks that can acquire small regional banks for a fraction of the cost.

Task 3:
Close/bankrupt the large banks. Declare that banks and crypto cannot be trusted and announce that only digital currency from the central bank is now acceptable.

🔍 This proposed plan involves a three-step process towards a shift to a centralized digital currency system. The first task involves removing small regional banks, followed by leaving only three large banks that can acquire the remaining smaller banks. The final task is to close or bankrupt the remaining large banks and declare that banks and cryptocurrencies are not trustworthy, with only digital currency from the central bank being deemed acceptable.

=An Analyst's Opinion on Morgan Stanley and Bitcoin=

Part 1

Morgan Stanley, a subsidiary of JPMorgan and the second largest commercial transnational corporation in the US and the 34th largest bank in the world, founded in 1935 and owning the largest brokerage business in the world, has declared that Bitcoin is a speculative asset, not a currency.

Investment bank analysts noted that the first cryptocurrency is not isolated from the traditional financial system, as its price is supported by banking liquidity in US dollars.

They emphasized that Bitcoin was created for storing value and conducting transactions without intermediaries, but in practice, the leading cryptocurrency "is not isolated from the traditional banking system." This is because the price of Bitcoin is supported by "banking liquidity" in US dollars, making BTC trading similar to trading a speculative asset, not a currency.

While the Bitcoin network can function without banks, the asset's price and therefore its purchasing power still depend on the policies of the "central bank," and it needs traditional banks for liquidity inflows to the cryptocurrency market, according to Morgan Stanley.

On March 14, the price of Bitcoin rose nearly 20% after US authorities said they would support the banking sector. However, last week, amid uncertainty, BTC fell together with risky assets and bank stocks, trading as a speculative asset, according to the report.

"If Bitcoin were sold in line with its core value proposition - the ability to be your own bank - then its price would have risen amid growing banking uncertainty," Morgan Stanley specialists believe.

Part 2

According to Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan's subsidiary and the second-largest commercial transnational corporation in the US and the 34th largest bank in the world, Bitcoin's recent rally was likely caused by a small number of market participants and short position liquidations rather than fundamental changes in trading dynamics.

What can be said in response to the bank's statement? Over the past 30 days, Morgan Stanley's shares have fallen 16%, while Bitcoin has risen 16% over the same period, even with recent declines. Morgan Stanley manages over $2.3 trillion in private capital. The bank has lost over $22 billion in market capitalization over the past 30 days, and it is essential to hear its analysts' opinions on why Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

In addition, Morgan Stanley's ownership of the largest brokerage business in the world makes it the largest speculator on Earth, placing margin positions for its clients that exceed Bitcoin's capitalization by several times. Therefore, the bank's statement is motivated by envy. In reality, Morgan Stanley is simply an American banking conglomerate engaged in speculation on the stock and financial markets. Furthermore, international rating agency Moody's has downgraded its outlook on the entire US banking system, including Morgan Stanley, from stable to negative.

📈💰 This analysis highlights the tension between traditional financial institutions and the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry. While Morgan Stanley's opinion on Bitcoin's status as a speculative asset may carry weight in some circles, the bank's own struggles and questionable practices may raise questions about its credibility in this debate. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how traditional financial institutions and their perspectives adapt to the changing landscape.

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Bitcoin (Opinion from Twitter)

📉 : What Lies Beyond the Dip?

🕒 In the 12-hour timeframe, a notable liquidation zone emerges at $24,725

🗓️ Over a 1-month timeframe, the crucial level is at 26.7k

🔎 No compelling reasons to open a short position at the moment

📊 Analyzing the market with caution and vigilance

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❓ Crypto Enthusiasts on Social Media Seek Connection Between Two 'The Economist' Covers

💡 Exploring the potential link between two intriguing 'The Economist' covers:

➖ Sep 18th, 2021: Down the Rabbit Hole: The Promise and Perils of Decentralized Finance

➖ Mar 18th, 2023: What's Wrong with the Banks

UnknownUnicorn285026

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