Quick Update - BTC Possible Path to Recovery
With around 4 hours left on the daily, the window for a bullish recovery today is getting narrower but the single other time we dropped below the 20/21w MAs in a bull market we spent a couple days under it. Additionally on the 1D chart the last five times our Stoch RSI dropped to the level we are at now, it spent an average of 3 days there, and we are currently closing day 3.
At smaller timeframes (under 4 hours) we are starting to see numerous bullish divergences, on MACD, RSI, DMA. However we are painting a descending triangle which suggests the potential for a breakdown below the current support.
That said, the bullish divergences suggest to me that any bearish breakdown will be soon followed by a strong reversal. Even if we dip, the 200 DMA (immediately below at the bottom of our next support zone, is a strong support and hosts a collection of orders that could provide the volume needed to break bullish and climb back above the 20/21w MAs.
Bottom line: a bearish breakout can quickly flip bullish. We'll want to watch how BTC reacts around 44.7k (top of triangle resistance) and 42k (bottom support); if it breaks under the triangle we have the possibility for a strong bounce from the 200 DMA which also aligns with the next lower support zone. If it falls under there we have room to continue dropping, as low as 32k imo. Not financial advice.
As always, I am not a financial professional and this is only my speculation. Practice good risk management and best of luck.
At smaller timeframes (under 4 hours) we are starting to see numerous bullish divergences, on MACD, RSI, DMA. However we are painting a descending triangle which suggests the potential for a breakdown below the current support.
That said, the bullish divergences suggest to me that any bearish breakdown will be soon followed by a strong reversal. Even if we dip, the 200 DMA (immediately below at the bottom of our next support zone, is a strong support and hosts a collection of orders that could provide the volume needed to break bullish and climb back above the 20/21w MAs.
Bottom line: a bearish breakout can quickly flip bullish. We'll want to watch how BTC reacts around 44.7k (top of triangle resistance) and 42k (bottom support); if it breaks under the triangle we have the possibility for a strong bounce from the 200 DMA which also aligns with the next lower support zone. If it falls under there we have room to continue dropping, as low as 32k imo. Not financial advice.
As always, I am not a financial professional and this is only my speculation. Practice good risk management and best of luck.
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