BTC Countdown to Crabtown

24 ก.ค. 2021

Each push getting weaker, indicators indicating flagging or down instead of flagging or up... Yea, this is when you consider a short. Could go either way, but I think we cool off back to 31k at least, before we have a shot at returning to bullishness. There are a few stronger support areas now though on the way down. Set stop loss accordingly.

Crab claw coming down, don't get pinched!

24 ก.ค. 2021

บันทึก

I calculate price action probability with a modified markov chain to create a matrix of ranges over a 7 day span. It can do longer but I find it unreliable much longer than 10 days out. At some point I'll learn pine good enough to share it with everyone here as an indicator (I haven't seen anything like it, and the few markov chain based indicators I have found don't even work or do something entirely different), but for now it's something that's my own little secret lol. I will share results though, both because it's interesting information to consider, has proven to be accurate more often than not, and as an effort to keep a public log that I can check my work against.

Anyways
31100-32600 has an above 50% likelihood of occurring
~31k-29400 have rapidly decreasing probabilities from 49% at 3110% to %9.778 at ~29400.
Less than that is unlikely in the next few days due to the momentum we've shown. It's not out of the possibility of what could happen, but it's not likley in the near term.
I should also point out that staying above 32600 has a nearly 50% chance too, and it's above 60% that we lose 33600 in the next few days. 32300 will be a tough line to get under to get all the way back to 31100 but it could happen (50.7% chance)

There are also bullish values to consider. However at present, the highest bullish value target is 47% chance to reach 35500 if we break through 34700, and any higher has exponentially lower probability. Bullishness tends to increase in probability after a long flag with lots of longish candles/wicks or a bounce down.

25 ก.ค. 2021

บันทึก

"Bullishness tends to increase in probability after a long flag with lots of longish candles/wicks"

seems this is happening again...careful. It's got to come down soon, but then again, We are getting close to the start of when I predict a reversal, so who knows, this might be precursors of that

26 ก.ค. 2021

บันทึก

reversal confirmed. If we break 40k we got some room to grow.

27 ก.ค. 2021

บันทึก

Well, I knew there was a downturn on the way, I just called it too early lol. I got a bad habit of doing that it seems.

This could bounce back up soon, or retrace back down to 32k to close a gap.