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Possible short term low set for Bitcoin, bullish flag and H&S
ที่อัปเดต:
Now there are 2 options (always is ofcourse LOL :)).
This H&S could turn into a bullish flag, but is less likely, because it dropped to much from the high. Idealy it drops towards 9400/9500 to make a higher low. If it could get above 11K from there on, than this extreme bearish trend will be over and things will cool down. But don't expect this down trend is over, there is just to much fear in the market, to much uncertainty doubt!
In my last update of the previous chart i pointed out the low of the day through a decending wedge, went long on 9500 and added at 9350, with almost 90% certainty it would make a spike upwards. This does not mean the down trend is over now, only for the short term. 13K is probably the turning point now between bearish en bullish scenario. Long term (days/weeks) i expect even lower prices, but things can change any minute ofcourse.
When BTC was still trading around between 13K and 14K, it did look like it would go up again towards the 15K, but it's obvious the market was much te weak and to much fear. I did mention that the Bitcoin is game over. I don't think we will ever see a new ATH again.
The drop from the 20K was hurtfull for many people, but because the Alts were making insane profits, nobody really cared because most were people were probably still making big wins. But this is the second big dump (without making a new high) but this time many people lost even more with the Alt coins. I dont hear anybody talk about these facts. But this whole market is based and hope and expectations, maybe even 95% of it, so when trust and confidence gets damaged like happaned now, even the most insane people wont put there money in so easily.
This H&S could turn into a bullish flag, but is less likely, because it dropped to much from the high. Idealy it drops towards 9400/9500 to make a higher low. If it could get above 11K from there on, than this extreme bearish trend will be over and things will cool down. But don't expect this down trend is over, there is just to much fear in the market, to much uncertainty doubt!
In my last update of the previous chart i pointed out the low of the day through a decending wedge, went long on 9500 and added at 9350, with almost 90% certainty it would make a spike upwards. This does not mean the down trend is over now, only for the short term. 13K is probably the turning point now between bearish en bullish scenario. Long term (days/weeks) i expect even lower prices, but things can change any minute ofcourse.
When BTC was still trading around between 13K and 14K, it did look like it would go up again towards the 15K, but it's obvious the market was much te weak and to much fear. I did mention that the Bitcoin is game over. I don't think we will ever see a new ATH again.
The drop from the 20K was hurtfull for many people, but because the Alts were making insane profits, nobody really cared because most were people were probably still making big wins. But this is the second big dump (without making a new high) but this time many people lost even more with the Alt coins. I dont hear anybody talk about these facts. But this whole market is based and hope and expectations, maybe even 95% of it, so when trust and confidence gets damaged like happaned now, even the most insane people wont put there money in so easily.
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Here you can see the bearish H&S and the bullish flag.
I know some people will be dissapointed, but i mentioned this a month ago, my followers and likes are staying behind, that's the main challange for me, for positing these charts and updates. The last few weeks i have not posted so much, i will try to make time to post some more, but if the followers do not increase, i will probably stop posting and updating.
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It was really flirting with that support trend line ater it broke out, it has finaly making a a move up now with some volume!บันทึก
Looking short term bullish now, if it stays withing this patternบันทึก
There it is, now it could slow down a bit. everything above 10.200 is goodบันทึก
Iam out at 10550, waitin for another entryบันทึก
Now i am shorting it at 10.730, stop at 10.900, short tradeบันทึก
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Went higher than i thought, stop now around 10780 for an almost free tradeบันทึก
Shorting it again at 10930, buying volume is not convincing, no conviction!! stop of about 200 points (small position!)บันทึก
Target around 10450
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Stop lowered to just below 10900 (right shoulder)บันทึก
Market looks stronger than i though, was almost sure it would make another small wave down before going up. Alts are also going up now, probably gives confidence for everyone,
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It is still lokking really strong, turning every small H&S into a bullish pattern. Selling volume is still higher than buying, so that's a weakness. Overall it's still tricky now
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It shold stay above the 10.600, บันทึก
No more worries, everything is forgotten :). Looking realy strong, chances are getting bigger we will see the 12K very soon
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The target of the H&S from the bottem with the neckline at 10.400 has been reached! This could mean it could drop some from here, but it could just as well stay above the 11K. It should not drop below the 10.400 anymoreบันทึก
I think this is the final upwave for, probably reach around 11.800, in that are i will start to short it in 3 small orders, starting at 11.700บันทึก
final bullish triangle
I only expect a short term drop, not a new low (yet)
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I have the first ones in at 11650, seems to be weakening, maybe it wont even complete the triangleบันทึก
Crap, i really thought it would make a last spike up to 11.800, now i only got a third of my position. I will close it around 11.200/11.300บันทึก
I will close around 11.050, stop at 11.320 nowบันทึก
Target around 10.700/10.800
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Flag in the making, should stay below the 11.250 now!บันทึก
Target reachedบันทึก
Last update for now, likes followers and views are staying behind to much!บันทึก
I am long now at 11000บันทึก
Bitfinex is doing the same shit it did a few weeks ago, pulling them all down. My guess is, if it is spoofy or some other whales, it's quite obvious some are really dumping at Bitfinex!That's why i am almost convinced we will make another drop to the 9K low or even much lower. So it was an very easy short again from the highs today, because it was just exactley the same as a few days ago. I still think we need to have another wave up again, to get the BTC higher but even more important, get the Alts higher, so everybody sees the big %gains again so they will put there money into the market again and the big guys can start selling again. It is looking very weak now, but if you take the BTC charts of the other exchanges, it looks much better. Everything is possible ofcourse, but i dont think they will let it drop now.
I have added at 11.010 (all small positions, risky trades)
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Bitstamp chart, looks like a bullish flag (consolidation). Bitfinex chart looks much weaker, with a clear resistance at the 11.800 level
I have added some more at 10.900, I have a wider stop around 10.750, cause it''s a small position!
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It should above the 11.00 now, than it could make a small H&S with target 11.350
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I have moved my stop to 10950 to minimize the loss, this H&S could fail, if so we will see a drop towards 10.600/10.700บันทึก
No real buying volume,moved my stop to 11.100 for at least 100 points profit
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As i mentioned before, real buying volume was missing, so the small H&S did nor reach it's target, sign of weakness! So chances are bigger we will drop some more now, i wont short it at this level, because i still believe they wont let it drop, i have been surpsised to many times, to only look at the TA, i always keep in mind how these manipulative markets work!บันทึก
Just as i predicted, it looked like a certain drop because of the weak signs i talked about earlier, but they just wont let it drop to much, there is to much at stake now!. People just have to think the drop of last week is just a correction!
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looking much better, has made a solid bottom now
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i am long now at 10850, small position!บันทึก
i am out at 10800, thanks to spoofyบันทึก
Stop just below the previous low,I did not see this drop comming, there is just no volume buying. And again, it's almost a certainty that it will make drops, when Bitfinex is about 400 point lower than Bitstamp.
I see some big orders in the bid book, but it does not work, 500 btc at 11.000, at 10.900 and at 10.800. They are being sold, i cant tell if it's wash trading or people really dumping this time.
There still just aint no real buying volume. I am having second thoughts now about it being able to reach the 12.500ish levels.
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So this is what i thought would happen, that we would see a quick upwards correction, alle the buying greed of people thinking this is a lifetime opportunity discount, go towards the 12.500ish level, idealy max of 12.800, and from there on slowely turning down to crash later on
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