BTC/USD, BTC.D, Technical Outlook, Edition #59 (22/07/21)

Bitcoin flirts with USD 32.5K and remains suppressed by the D1 20 EMA (GREEN) which has been acting as resistance for over two months now.

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 4 Hour (H4)



Referencing the D1 BTC/USD chart above we can see two potential paths for Bitcoin to choose, one is bullish while the other is bearish. Now, starting with the bullish expectations first…

Bitcoin closed above USD 31K shortly after dropping to USD 29K previously, the spring was complimented with some decent reflexive volume that served as a reminder to bears who may have been squeezed after shorting major support.

Thus, if this is not a bull trap then Bitcoin must continue holding above USD 31K and then flip the D1 20 EMA (GREEN) into support at USD 32.5K.

Alternatively, should bears take the reins again then that would be due to BTC/USD falling below USD 31K, thereby confirming a false breakout to suck in liquidity and trap buyers before the next leg down?

Until we get that such a drop then our bias is non-existent. We are essentially holding our bi-partisan view with Bitcoin constant for now until further confirmation has been identified through either rally above USD 32.5K (bullish) or a drop below USD 31K (bearish).

Bitcoin Dominance, BTC.D - 1 Day (D1)



In addition, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) continues building up the necessary momentum for a bullish reversal. Steer clear of small-cap altcoins for the time being until Bitcoin has finished up with its dominance play

Q’s Conclusion

Some bullish fundamental factors gave bulls the pressure they needed to break out, however, is this just a bearish re-test, or will bears start bringing the pressure again? It’s best to wait for the market to decide on its next move before taking any significant positions.

See you again for the next update.

- q