BTC -NEVER AGAIN BELOW 10,000? 1MO AFTER HALVING THE PRICE RISES

6 มิ.ย. 2020

Hello,
why I am bullish?

Here the peultimate MACRO update on post halving for btc after:

-pre-halving analysis (see the linked idea)
-mining cost (see my last idea)
-indicators analysis (the secret indicator idea).

They are all linked by the way.

Here just a recap of past halving:



Quickly (but you can find details in the linked idea), the red and green lines are retracements level from past halving lows to ATH and from ATH to 3k lows in 2019 respectively. The red area is an accumulation area. You can see that there are many similarities between 2016 and 2020 halving.

The only difference is the timing. Evertything in this halving seemed to have occurred with a lot of advance (the first test to the up side of the retracement levels and the consequent dump to the lower levels). I already explained why it was so (in the 2.5 years snapshot of BTC in a previous idea): a lot of anticipation by more aware market participants. The halving rise started in April 2019 (1year before) and the drop 6months before. I consider the Covid 19 fall as an exogenous event not linked to the BTC structure, indeed we rapidly came back to the same levels pre covid.

So, assuming this is correct the bottom is already in. Actually we are testing again the red line. Some resistence is expected because it is a 1 years level but we are above the descending channel for the first time in 1 year and the more the resistence gets tested, the weaker it becomes. Also we did not see any major drop from rejections.

If this view is not correct, in any case we have seen in the past that 1 month after the halving the price starts it inesorable growth, that later (1year) becomes exponential. But the growth should start now.

Yes, there is still few days/weeks to go down and room to go down (see the mining cost idea), but honestly there is no reason to see BTC lower, if not by big whales speculation.

Personally my view is bullish. I will buy put options with short expiry to protect me in case of dump and will set low buy levels,of course, but I will also accumulate a little here and buy call options with longer expiries to gain from a pump. I rather prefer to risk to pay more btc now than having to run over the rising price. This time indeed, it can really be the last time we can buy BTC below 10,000.

Looking forward to see a weekly close above 9700.

In the next idea I will say targets for price rises and my levels for buying lower in case of a dump.