Bitcoin: No Moon Anytime Soon.

21 ก.ค.

Bitcoin: My previous week's anticipated scenario flailed to play out but in all fairness was never confirmed by the market on this time frame (short setup off 60K). Price is now flirting within the upper boundaries of the 64-66K resistance AREA which was previously a support. With this in mind, I anticipate a bearish retrace scenario over the coming week which can take price back into the low 63K to 64K area. This is ideal for swing trades and day trades on the short side. Expecting greater moves one way or the other is not reasonable within this context.

Narrowing a range of scenarios is the best we can do when it comes to "forecasting" the future. Since the markets are HIGHLY random and any piece of unexpected news can change everything dramatically, we can only assign a loose probability based on a historical reference (like a previous support/resistance level). Once we can narrow a range of scenarios, it HELPS to have a framework to CONFIRM the scenario, otherwise the outcome is more likely to be RANDOM. When a scenario is confirmed, it INCREASES the chances of a positive outcome but does NOT guarantee one. Probability means there is always a chance of failure and in this game, is the reason why RISK most be well defined and respected since its one of the few things we can control.

A trade idea often begins with one of two possibilities: momentum continuation OR reversal. Which one you choose is going to shape how you filter information and what criteria you place on it to confirm. In the case of Bitcoin now, since the 64 to 66K area is an anticipated point of resistance (see arrows), it would make sense to look for the confirmation of reversals or short signals (Trade Scanner Pro). Once confirmed the next step is to be able to gauge reasonable potential and this is a function of your chosen time frame. For example, the profit objective and associated risk on a 1 minute chart will NOT be the same compared to a one hour chart. The larger the time frame, the greater the reward/risk.

In the case of the time frame on my chart, I am measuring short potential based upon the previous support level around the 63 to 64K area (now previous resistance). It may or may not reach the profit objective, the point is it would be unreasonable to expect more although ANYTHING is possible. Since the broader trend of Bitcoin continues to be BULLISH, in my opinion it is better to expect supports to generally hold and less from shorts.

One important thing to be cognizant of is the herd mentality of "experts". Typically in situations where there is a dramatic movement, the herd of experts usually "forecasts" continuation of that move since it is a typical reaction to think in a "linear" sense. You may notice calls for 100K etc. When Bitcoin was testing 53K they were calling for much lower prices. if you regularly consume and value such misinformation, that is a liability that only you can contend with.

Profit in this game usually comes from the mistakes of others. In order to capitalize you have to recognize where common errors are made (like buying highs). Without a framework to shape decisions in a more objective way, you are much more likely to rely on your "intuition" (greed/fear) and following others who pretend to know more than you. I say it all the time: follow PRICE not people.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.