บิทคอยน์ที่อัปเดต: BTCUSD - Beware the bull trap! 30k still more likely than 40k
24.01.2022, 10PM UTC --- Good evening, a very quick and simple (short-term) update on the BTC price action explaining why, despite the fast rebound to 37k, a breakdown to ~30k is still more likely than 40k right now.
Today, we will simply have a look at the BTC price action and RSI on the 1D time frame. As you can see, since ATH, BTC has been trading in that descending channel which we can divide in two (lower and upper) parts. I have been using this descending channel in my previous analyses, and it is calculated and automatically displayed by TradingView (try it out for yourself). In short: after trying again the upper channel, the price action couldn't stay up there and broke down to the lower channel once again, and stopped at the dark blue lower boundary at 33k. It then rebounded up to 37k (following the stock market), and that rebound is having many believe in a quick rally to the upside back above 40k. Now, let's look at the RSI: we see that whenever the price action entered the upper channel, the RSI went above the purple resistance, and back below it when the price action went back down to the lower channel. Right now, the price action is progressing near the upper channel, HOWEVER: the RSI is still very low (30), and is showing no sign of breaking above the purple resistance and the grey descending resistance either yet. Thus we could conclude that BTC is not yet ready to rally up to the upper channel, and might instead go back down somewhere around the 100weekly MA, in the 30k region, before picking up momentum and finally rally to the upside.
I am not saying this will certainly happen, it is just my interpretation of the interplay of the 1D RSI and the price action. Thank you for reading.
Today, we will simply have a look at the BTC price action and RSI on the 1D time frame. As you can see, since ATH, BTC has been trading in that descending channel which we can divide in two (lower and upper) parts. I have been using this descending channel in my previous analyses, and it is calculated and automatically displayed by TradingView (try it out for yourself). In short: after trying again the upper channel, the price action couldn't stay up there and broke down to the lower channel once again, and stopped at the dark blue lower boundary at 33k. It then rebounded up to 37k (following the stock market), and that rebound is having many believe in a quick rally to the upside back above 40k. Now, let's look at the RSI: we see that whenever the price action entered the upper channel, the RSI went above the purple resistance, and back below it when the price action went back down to the lower channel. Right now, the price action is progressing near the upper channel, HOWEVER: the RSI is still very low (30), and is showing no sign of breaking above the purple resistance and the grey descending resistance either yet. Thus we could conclude that BTC is not yet ready to rally up to the upper channel, and might instead go back down somewhere around the 100weekly MA, in the 30k region, before picking up momentum and finally rally to the upside.
I am not saying this will certainly happen, it is just my interpretation of the interplay of the 1D RSI and the price action. Thank you for reading.
บันทึก
additional comment: since btc is highly correlated to the stock market, it is worth mentioning that although the stock market rebounded back up to previous supports before closing today, there is no guarantee that those supports might not turn into resistances - given the long-term nature of the concern, rising interest rates.บันทึก
+ 27hr update, 26.01 12AM UTC: the hypothesised move down to the 30k region can still happen; 1D RSI hasn't moved, currently at 30.4, and 37.5k seems to be acting as resistance. No sign of immediate downward pressure though.บันทึก
26.01 3PM UTC last update on this post: today's 1D candle brought the RSI up to level 36, right where the crucial grey dynamic resistance (RSI has stayed below it since ATH!) and the boundary of the upper channel are. Using the Phoenix Ascending indicator on the 1D tf, you can see that although the green MA is above 50, the RSi and least square MA are still very low around 20. The way I see that, BTC price could be overextended at the moment, and we're at risk of falling back down. This is a crucial moment, be careful. Some stock market strategists are calling out loud that's right now is a clear buy (too late!), while the US Fed hasn't even disclosed their report yet. Wait and don't fall for FOMO!
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน