Price Action For Next Two Months

16 มิ.ย. 2022

Chart notes:

Successive death crosses on the MAs. (Inputs are 50 and 200 for the 2, 3, and 4-day periods)

20k ATH tested with locally high volume though should be noted the volume is very low on the weekly (compare with previous bottoms)

Many people suspect a bear rally or relief rally to follow. I think price action will be choppy for the short term as the 20k level proves to be an important zone.

I see a channel forming (marked in blue). Anyone with Flags or Elliot Waves want to contest or defend this feel free, I’d appreciate your input.

If price rallies out of channel I think market will then want to test MA resistance. I don’t have faith the MAs will be ignored, especially if/once the 4D death cross prints. 

I’ve marked in the 300W MA as potential support. The reason being, if 20k breaks, BTC doesn’t really have any obvious support levels market consensus shares. I personally don’t think the 300W MA will be something price interacts with strong. Because some people are looking at it, it will have something to say on the daily, but I think zooming out to the weekly price action will ignore it (unless the week’s cycle lines up with the day’s close)

So where’s our long-term support? I can only draw a Volume Profile for this. (I can’t set more than 5 indicators so I just drew it in like the 300W MA) Historically this is where most transactions have taken place (in the 20k to 6k range).

There’s no reason to expect high volume in the coming months, so this range makes sense to me. Whether price breaks out of the channel or continues down, I think both will find a floor somewhere in that rectangle.

Indicators:
I’ve only included the MACD (4D period). It is my assumption that RSI, A/D, and other technical indicators won’t prove reliable right now as traders are paying more attention to global news. Protracted Ukraine war, Recession, yi yi, its all been said.

I just wanted to show the MACD paired with the 4D (projected out) death cross because together they hint there’s room to drop. 


Self-criticism:
In Feb I looked at BTCUSD chart on Tradingview (no account at the time) and guessed August would be the right time to start building a long. I have no experience investing. Re: psychology, this chart may just be me validating that original assumption. Others believe 20k will hold, with only a wick below on the weekly. Others think we’re going down to 4k, and have been saying it long before you could claim fear. Well, look where we are now? Some argue BTC has never seen a recession before.

On-chain market indicators like the NUPL and MVRV Z-Score, which are very good at showing ‘bottoms’, which indicate we’re encroaching a bottom now, may be misleading given geopolitical events. Who knows?

Position:


I would not long or short here.
I would not average in here (unless you have a sizeable amount to invest)


DISCLAIMER: Posting for my own record. Made public for discussion. I welcome your thoughts. Please feel free to comment below.



16 มิ.ย. 2022

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Here's the volume profile (I did lean it towards recent years, so not actually "all time" as the chart says.

Also, comparing the volume with previous bottoms (for the mention above).

16 มิ.ย. 2022

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Link to NUPL
lookintobitcoin.com/charts/r...

As you can see there's much more room before the market turns a paper loss. Bottom consolidation has yet to begin. If the price bounces from here that will only start the accumulation period later. I'm hoping for an early to mid-August timeframe for the first signs of a bottom to appear. Keeping an eye on the NUPL will be a big factor going forward. Not sure how reliable price-volume metrics will be in predicting the bottom. Let me know if you disagree!

16 มิ.ย. 2022

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Hash Rate still rising steadily. Price remains high above a "technical floor" for lack of better terms (still learning). Historically, bottoms are in when price action forces miners to capitulate.

18 มิ.ย. 2022

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LEARNING PITCHFORKS:


Next support @ 16.5k. If reached, next resistance @ 20k (coincidentally, previously tested ATH support zone)

Why two variations? (V1. Andrew and V2. Modified). V3. Schiff didn't fit. Unsure which pitchfork (V1 or V2) better placates price action. Price seems to interact with both at the moment. How cool! Posting to see if forks play out.

19 มิ.ย. 2022

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Favouring modified Schiff, let's see if it confirms.

18.78% is the price of 2018's ATL from 2017's ATH, signalling the next cycle.
18.78% places next ATL at $12959 (approx.), all things being equal.

19 มิ.ย. 2022

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A closer look at the SOPR for market bottoms:

19 มิ.ย. 2022

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Just found this and was too excited to not share. 300WMA and median cross on the big trend! Traders everywhere have to be looking at this and marking a bounce.

The week closes in 18h, If the next candle breaks 16.5k we'll surely get mass liquidation. The 300MA HAS to hold the week. But can it possibly? Sell pressure continues to be aggressive, and despite all those calling bottom, I don't see the volume. ARE YOU NOT ON THE EDGE OF YOUR SEAT?

19 มิ.ย. 2022

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Last update for a while.

For all those out there feeling like they don't want to catch the falling knife or are scared they're going to miss out on the bottom, here's a look into BTC Realised Price.

"When the BTC Market Price is BELOW Realized Price then, on aggregate, the market participants are incurring a paper loss."

Are we below RP now? Yes. Check it out here --> lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

So, have we hit bottom? Maybe, maybe not. There's still room to fall. But whether we have or not, there is no need to load in now. Taking data from the chart, here's a list of the percentage difference between Price and Realised Price (at the lowest point of each bottom) and the period of days RP remained below Price. Think of that as the amount of time you have to catch the bottom. I am saying all this to abate that FOMO, my own included.

2020: period 8 days, 0.27% below Price
2019: period 133 days, 29.83% below Price
2015: period 85 days, 24.21% below Price
2015: period 196 days, 37.22% below Price
2011: period 1210 days, 60% below Price

What is it right now? Well, it has only been 5 days (since June 13) RP has been below Price, currently standing at 16.04% The chart gets updated daily.

Now, 2020 should not be equally weighted. Price was not coming down from an ATH, or nearing a cycle, and it really only dipped below due to a panic sell, or maybe a big liquidation, I don't know, I wasn't checking the news for BTC back then. But what I can tell you is that the news now does support a longer visit into this RP < P zone. It may dip out and back in, but historically speaking, and with the economy the way it is right now/ looking to be, it is very reasonable to think this period will another 133 days. Maybe 85, maybe 196. Probably not 1210 days when BTC traded under $10 dollars for years. So sit back and relax. It may very well be a boring year, which can be very exciting if you hope to invest for the next bull cycle.

20 มิ.ย. 2022

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Fibs mark bear flag levels

As price bounced at the previous flag’s tip, not expecting 0.5 lvl to be met this time. Pitchfork levels converge resistance here too. Worth placing a short here on the chance it’ll fill.

BTC Long/Short Ratio for the last 24 hours: 48.18 : 51.82

BTC-USD OrderDepth represents the same at the time of writing, though Longs are placed at double the range of shorts, indicating more people hold the belief that the price is more likely to reach 19k over 20.5k next (all things being equal---considering the long-short ration is close to 50/50)
*data from coinglass(.com)


NUPL: -19.15 (18th June)
*data from lookintobitcoin(.com)

20 มิ.ย. 2022

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Shout out to this range filter by DW.
Range size 1, Range Period 28, Smoothing period 27 (not sure if I changed default values, can't remember).