Bitcoin a much less interesting investment part 2
ที่อัปเดต:
Reward:risk much lower
Odds much much lower. 4.5 Trillion are you serious? Finding 300 billion is much much so much easier than finding 4.5 trillion.
The economy is crazy high into the debt cycle and hedge funds are getting destroyed, no way they can borrow moar money to throw into crypto anytime soon.
These simple undeniable facts mean putting money into Bitcoin today is far less interesing than putting money into it at the bottom in 2015.
Some interesting facts:
The whole US (+ Can) stock market is obviously the biggest, and is valued at almost 35 Trillion USD.
The whole Europe stock market is somewhere around 20-25 Trillion USD.
The whole Asian stock market is valued at about 30-35 Trillion USD.
That is over 90% of the total for the world.
The grand total is about 100 Trillion.
All the people excited about what has happened in the past, I am pretty sure they are clueless about this.
I am not even saying it's bad or good.
Just the UNDENIABLE fact that today compared to 3 years ago, the reward is far lower compared to the risk.
There has to be much much much more money sent into crypto to go up as much and the RR is lower.
This cannot be argued.
Also, noobs greatest mistake is wanting a "sure thing". They want a nobrain mecanical trading system, they want and "expert" to tell them what trade to take and if the winrate is 70% they expect to get 7 wins and 3 losses out of any batch of 10.
I'll pass on how idiotic this is.
But the funny thing, is in history, each time amateurs or unsophisticated investors went for a "sure thing" they lost their pants.
"Oh the economy is doing great I will mortgage my house I bought on a 25 years credit and borrow more money to invest".
Want to know a cheat way to make money in real estate?
Save up 10.000$. Buy a house for 100.000 on credit with a payment of 500/month over 250 months (25% interest - oh wait the interest rates are at their lowest since 1929 so it's way less than that)
"The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.66 percent this week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage market survey. That's the lowest rate since May 2013. Interest rates, however, should not be the primary factor that determines when you purchase a home."
So you will pay 500/month over a period of 210 months let's say (17 years).
HERE IS THE CATCH. YOU RENT THE PLACE FOR 500/MONTH. THE PEOPLE YOU ARE RENTING TOO PAY FOR THE PLACE. YOU JUST GOT A HOUSE FOR FREE.
OH, BUT IT GETS BETTER. NOW YOU HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 500$ MONTHLY INCOME TO COUNTER THE EXPENSE. SO YOU ACTUALLY GET TO BORROW A LITTLE BIT MORE SINCE YOU CAN REPAY THE BANK ON PAPER. SO YOU BORROW MORE AND BUY ANOTHER. HEY, YOU CAN KEEP DOING THIS, WHY WOULD YOU NOT? THE INTEREST RATES ARE NEAR 0! Until the whole system collapses...
If the interest rates are at 0 you basically get free money... Great way to boost the economy, but once it is up and running the Fed have to act really fast and push the interest rates up to prevent a gigantic recession. By the way, the Fed were created a little after 1929.
Ah by the way, the FED:
"The Fed has telegraphed a clear intention to begin unwinding a key policy tool deployed during the Great Recession as it seeks to reduce the size of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, now some five times larger than its pre-crisis total. "
They have so much assets because they did this "quantitative easing" to save the day.
Quantitative easing, also known as large-scale asset purchases, is an expansionary monetary policy whereby a central bank buys predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to stimulate the economy and increase liquidity.
Oh they are not going to buy crypto's with all that money lol, trust me.
Also, consider the fact that during crysis people run to safe havens, not speculative assests, but that is not a 100% fact like the 3 I posted at the start of this idea.
Odds much much lower. 4.5 Trillion are you serious? Finding 300 billion is much much so much easier than finding 4.5 trillion.
The economy is crazy high into the debt cycle and hedge funds are getting destroyed, no way they can borrow moar money to throw into crypto anytime soon.
These simple undeniable facts mean putting money into Bitcoin today is far less interesing than putting money into it at the bottom in 2015.
Some interesting facts:
The whole US (+ Can) stock market is obviously the biggest, and is valued at almost 35 Trillion USD.
The whole Europe stock market is somewhere around 20-25 Trillion USD.
The whole Asian stock market is valued at about 30-35 Trillion USD.
That is over 90% of the total for the world.
The grand total is about 100 Trillion.
All the people excited about what has happened in the past, I am pretty sure they are clueless about this.
I am not even saying it's bad or good.
Just the UNDENIABLE fact that today compared to 3 years ago, the reward is far lower compared to the risk.
There has to be much much much more money sent into crypto to go up as much and the RR is lower.
This cannot be argued.
Also, noobs greatest mistake is wanting a "sure thing". They want a nobrain mecanical trading system, they want and "expert" to tell them what trade to take and if the winrate is 70% they expect to get 7 wins and 3 losses out of any batch of 10.
I'll pass on how idiotic this is.
But the funny thing, is in history, each time amateurs or unsophisticated investors went for a "sure thing" they lost their pants.
"Oh the economy is doing great I will mortgage my house I bought on a 25 years credit and borrow more money to invest".
Want to know a cheat way to make money in real estate?
Save up 10.000$. Buy a house for 100.000 on credit with a payment of 500/month over 250 months (25% interest - oh wait the interest rates are at their lowest since 1929 so it's way less than that)
"The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.66 percent this week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage market survey. That's the lowest rate since May 2013. Interest rates, however, should not be the primary factor that determines when you purchase a home."
So you will pay 500/month over a period of 210 months let's say (17 years).
HERE IS THE CATCH. YOU RENT THE PLACE FOR 500/MONTH. THE PEOPLE YOU ARE RENTING TOO PAY FOR THE PLACE. YOU JUST GOT A HOUSE FOR FREE.
OH, BUT IT GETS BETTER. NOW YOU HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 500$ MONTHLY INCOME TO COUNTER THE EXPENSE. SO YOU ACTUALLY GET TO BORROW A LITTLE BIT MORE SINCE YOU CAN REPAY THE BANK ON PAPER. SO YOU BORROW MORE AND BUY ANOTHER. HEY, YOU CAN KEEP DOING THIS, WHY WOULD YOU NOT? THE INTEREST RATES ARE NEAR 0! Until the whole system collapses...
If the interest rates are at 0 you basically get free money... Great way to boost the economy, but once it is up and running the Fed have to act really fast and push the interest rates up to prevent a gigantic recession. By the way, the Fed were created a little after 1929.
Ah by the way, the FED:
"The Fed has telegraphed a clear intention to begin unwinding a key policy tool deployed during the Great Recession as it seeks to reduce the size of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, now some five times larger than its pre-crisis total. "
They have so much assets because they did this "quantitative easing" to save the day.
Quantitative easing, also known as large-scale asset purchases, is an expansionary monetary policy whereby a central bank buys predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to stimulate the economy and increase liquidity.
Oh they are not going to buy crypto's with all that money lol, trust me.
Also, consider the fact that during crysis people run to safe havens, not speculative assests, but that is not a 100% fact like the 3 I posted at the start of this idea.
บันทึก
OMG I went to twitter and /biz o.0Ponzi expert Carlos Matos (he is selling Herbalife products now and got back to crypto recently) is calling Bitcoin a scam.
But /biz... 10 months ago they were all picking lambo colors.
Today straight men are blowing off old dudes for money and looking for sympathy on the boards and considering suicide.
At least they did not sell and HODLed...
Yeah every one has their own rules, for me I am not sure but I think this is not worth it... even if Bitcoin goes to 1 million... Yeah I'm pretty sure that's not worth it to me. Would I rather die 100 times or invest in crypto's and end up like this? Probably rather die 100 times.
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Advice to cryptoers, those are the ways to make money:1- Start your business
2- Trading & investing
3- Kneepad
4- Win lottery
5- Inherit
6- Famous artist/athlete
7- Crime
1 2 and 6 take a long time with a steep learning curve and once you know what you are doing you will still need alot of time.
4 is random. You cannot choose that way (even thought millions of idiots go for 4)
5 is either random or alot of hardwork and a long wait + some number 3 too anyway.
So this leaves, as the only 2 ways to get rich quick, crime and kneepad. With crime being risky and certainly not guarenteed to success...
Cryptoer, want to get rich quick? Then the only way is kneepad + 50 yo men.
บันทึก
You might know most of the world money is in:The USA + Europe + Asia.
Money in world's biggest economies excluding china (probably @ ~ 1 trillion), in billion.
Switzerland $79.68
Hong Kong SAR $54.16
Japan $915.72
Singapore $29.39
United States $1,509.34
Euro area $1,217.91
Australia $57.71
Canada $64.40
Saudi Arabia $53.33
Korea $80.48
United Kingdom $93.78
Russia $145.11
Sweden $6.88
Mexico $68.71
Turkey $35.40
Brazil $71.23
India $196.49
South Africa $7.20
CPMI $4,686.91
If ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD just vanished and was replaced by Bitcoin, it would STILL not go to 500k, not even close.
Lmao bulls actually think their magic beans are going to replace the entirety of the world circulating money supply? Oh right it's a store of value too, what else should it replace?
"Here's how much money there is in the world — and why you've never heard the exact number. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the total amount is about $5 trillion. According to the CIA, the total amount is $80 trillion if you include "broad money.""
So if you pull ALL the money in the world (meaning Amazon would cost me 0 dollar and I can just get trucks of gold for free) Bitcoj n mcap would be 80 trillion.
Suuuure Bitcoin can go to 4 million then.
Emmm but... that would not even make sense, since usd value would go to 0 and all would disappear.
Bitcoin will EAT THE WORLD!
People will sell their houses to buy Bitcoin since a house is money somehow, every thing anyone posseses will go into Bitcoin market cap!
Everything will lose the entirety of itsq value for my preeecious.
You can get a WHOLE COUNTRY for free! They're not worth anything anymore, all their worth went into ponzicoin.
I would buy amazon for 1$ before I put money into Buttcoin.
These people are next level delusional dumbasses lmao.
Free money for traders with a working brain.
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Copy pasting something here...Cryptocurrencies have been around for less than a decade, whereas gold has been used as a store of value for thousands of years. Because of this long history, we know for a fact that stocks and bonds have low or negative correlations with gold, particularly during periods of economic recession. This makes gold a powerful hedge.
What little data we have on cryptocurrencies does not show the same. Consider this year alone: while the U.S. stock market continues to run record highs, the same goes for Bitcoin.
It’s true that gold has also gone up, but the correlation has been very low and, during times of recessions, tends to swing to the negative side, as you can see in the graph below.
Since 2010, there have been 15 times where the S&P 500 has seen drops of 5% or more. Out of those 15 stock market downturns, Bitcoin has been down for 10 of them.
How is that a good hedge?
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Cryptoers should take a look at this XD![HMNY bottomed [500-150% PP]](https://s3.tradingview.com/5/5Ve9TebU_mid.png)
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I just found out I could take screenshots of trading view charts on other sites and post them here :oSeriously cannot tell if price will go up or down.
If we go up to 300 billion mcap shorting this. Or 250 bil withall the right signs.
This is boring really...
This chart is much better than Bitcoin, because there is a inneficiency in BTC: when people flee crypto they do so by buying BTC. Or they flee the riskiest alts for BTC, or get their profits...
This chart is very easy because until now we kept having lower highs and lower lows for the past 10 months over and over.
If there is a higher high we can consider being bullish.
Still waiting for a higher high on gold btw...
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A quick optimistic but fair side to side between Nasdaq and CryptoWith a target 750$ BTC the view is not as optimistic, but still a big jump forward for crypto.
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Most optimistic view without being too crazy places market cap at 150 bil:Most pessimistic view without being too crazy places market cap at 10 bil:
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So happy we finally broke out of consolidation.I am going to have to leave for at least 4 hours to go sign some papers to quit my job, and I will also go to the restaurant while I'm at it for lunch at 4 pm because I can whatever I want, so I will not have a front seat to Bitcoin crash if it happens :(
But I waited so looong.
Just look at supports and lows. On Bitmex 6000 has to hold otherwise BTC probably goes straight to 5700 and then 5700 has to hold. I will post the supports I think there is one at 5000-5500 and next one on 3000$, if BTC goes down 5k bounces up to 5700 (support turned resistance) with hidden divergence I will add to my short. JUST PLEASE NO MORE SIDEWAYS. PLEASE. NO! NO! NO! NOOOO! OH GOD NO!
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