BTC in a Falling Wedge - One final leg down for capitulation?

13 ต.ค. 2018

Falling Wedge pattern usually breaks to the upside between 55-80% of the pattern. I've narrowed it down to between 62-77% on the chart to try to hone in on the date. If the pattern plays out, we would expect a break out between December 18th and February 19th. I would expect us to break to the upside to at least a measured move of $9200. Pattern could also fail and break to the downside. If we take a measured move to the downside, it would equate to 0. Failed falling wedges sometimes break down and curls around the entire pattern before it goes back up.

As mentioned, I expect us to go up due to the pattern at play.
Multiple factors signaling a bottom of $4400-$5000.

• Falling wedge pattern lines up with support and resistance from 2017.
  
• Fib Retracement from beginning of bull run in 2017 of $920 all the way up to ATH has the 0.786 level, which is the last level on the fib chart at $5,000
  
• Fib Extension from High of 10k down to previous low of $5800 back to 10k, puts the 1.272 level right at $4600, in between support and resistance. The 1.272 level would play out an ABCD bull pattern, with C being the high at $8500 which is the 0.618 level of previous high.
  
• Trading volume between $4900 - $5700 is nonexistent which if the $5700 low fails as support, we could end up in free fall down to 5k.
• Could expect wicks and perhaps capitulation below $4400 all the way down to next support where trading volume is high and confluence on the fib extension level 1.618 is.
  
• RSI symmetrical triangle broke to the downside suggesting further downside. A touch of support on the RSI as shown could signal an excellent buying opportunity.
  
• Lastly, we'd be looking for a 5th touch of the pattern (3 touches on one side and 2 touches on the other) for us to break out. For a bullish pattern, it helps that the 3 touches are on the bottom of the pattern.
  

I hope you all find value in this chart! Feedback is welcomed and thanks for checking it out!