10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.

9 ต.ค.

Overview:
The SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction.

BTC TA:
W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of 61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times.

D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji.

4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure.

1h: Price is oscillating around the 62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum.

Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct.

Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook.

Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders.

Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.