Nearing a top

24 ก.ค. 2018

Everyone is looking up so it's time to look the other way.
Yes, we definitely have room for one more move up
But...

1) the why :
We have a double top on stoch --> hidden bearish div
RSI is overbought on the daily, printing a lower low on H4 and H2 -->bearish div
MAcd is doing the same, we have a spike that confirm the count of wave iii on H4, while the daily is still going up, indicate this is a larger wave 3

2)the where :
I drew a red line on macd from previous high, it shouldn't go above that, it's a sell signal when price action reaches it
The top could be located anywhere in the red box, fib 2.618 is the natural target, but wave 3 look like it's extended so it could go higher
I recommend a take-profit with a trailling stop, since the last move will probably a big green candle it's the safest bet to sell near the top, and little chances to be "stop-hunt" there.
For a short entry wait for a break of the channel, with a close below on either h4 or h2

3)the when :
The up-coming daily candle should be bearish, hanging man and bearish engulf are most common on top of wave 3, look for those

4)the what
The second channel is our base and should offer support during wave 4
The blue support line is from the top of wave 1, it shouldn't be overlapped

Wave 2, was sharp, and retraced to fib 0.764, so wave 4 will be sideway and wouldn't retrace more than fib 0.618 or 0.5

RSI will show an entry when it starts to stagnate near the median, in the blue box
Stoch should print a lower low
And Macd to stay positive
Those will be confirmation for re-entry

Happy trading !
Feel free to ask any question :)

25 ก.ค. 2018

บันทึก

i am looking at the m15 chart

we have a double top
it reached target at 0.618
and then formed a HnS, just broke the neckline with descent volume and CMF seem to confirm
If this one plays out and reached the target in blue, the daily candle would definitely be a bearish one
Indicators on H4 have started to reset and confirmed the divergence

25 ก.ค. 2018

บันทึก

yet i wouldn't recommend to actively short at the moment, take-profit yes, look for re-entry also yes, but i wouldn't short.

We haven't seen a shakeout in a few days, this could be just that.

This last move was the first that price has risen without a squeeze.
And bear converted bull are waiting for a correction.
Let's remember, we had month(S) of downward movement without ever reaching above fib 0.618 to upside.
Most of the BTC bull-run i've experienced are propelled by seller waiting for a re-entry that never comes.
And by buyers selling their stagnating altcoin when they should be adding to them.

So if you believe in this bull-run be careful the trade you make now are the one that will matter the most later.

26 ก.ค. 2018

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

first blue target reached
box formation between 8200 and 8300
I don't think it will break down,

26 ก.ค. 2018

บันทึก

new strategy : gonna enter on either side in between triangle trendline and redline, to avoid stophunt
i favor the upside, but both are valid option
respective target in black at 8760 and 7780
good luck !

27 ก.ค. 2018

บันทึก

two possible count from here :

1)the red count with a larger wave 4, we should bounce of the blue line and aim for the red support. Or we can see a triangle. But so far it look like a zig zag, so probably no triangle
2)the blue count, wave 3 isn't done yet, we break above the blue line, we'll have an ugly wave iii (2.618 of wave i) and one higher high in store

31 ก.ค. 2018

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร