Bitcoin: Not a bad hedge.

8 เม.ย. 2020

The Price of Bitcoin has continued to waft to the upside, elegantly respecting support and resistance at key moving averages and volume nodes.

A fundamental lack of sellers after capitulation has led short speculators to be squeezed as they either try to find liquidity to take profit or simply speculating short against real buy interest and continued profit taking.

Its unclear how much demand will be affected by systematic shocks across the world in the financial markets. Clearly risk is to the downside in equities, however Central Bank printing/stimulus is stirring a demand reallocation towards hard assets.

In TA terms:

Bull Case:
Liquidity Magnet around and above 8k
Support/Resistance smash after capitulation; evident in VPVR
Gap in interest 7500-7800
Little selling interest for Bitcoin; HL HH / Buyers in control
Volume remains above average
Above Multiple Key Weekly Moving averages

Bear Case:
High correlation to equity markets / systematic risk
Declining Volume
Approaching Resistance
Dead Cat
Rising Wedge

If you forced me to be with the halving coming id think we dabble around 8k retest $7 and then break it and pump.
Worst case we struggle along with everyone else in the market. I think as a % Bitcoin might outperform the equities, so there might be opportunities there.

Long Bitcoin short the Banks has never seemed a more attractive hedge exposure to me.. not advice.

Regards

8 เม.ย. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Something like this perhaps.