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BTC from a Bird's Eye View 11/28/2020

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Bitcoin at the weekly view.

So now Bitcoin is the talk of the town when BTC broke its multi-year resistance (orange line). That's how BTC works. It does nothing for LONG time and then it explodes. From a big viewpoint, BTC has been following a certain channel angle for years. Yeah, there are lines below, but I choose to hide them and only highlight the relevant supports/resistance.

You cannot think in micro movements with Bitcoin. You have to think big. You can use the same basic trading principles as FOREX into crypto, but you have to recognize crypto's individual cycles. Bitcoin's bull market has been in full swing since July. Now that PayPal and big banks approve of crypto, there will likely be an artificial floor with Bitcoin.

The question on everyone's mind is this a pullback or a crash? More than likely a pullback. After all, BTC was more than 5000 points above the 20 DMA. It's basic price action. It's crazy to think that if BTC did crash to 11k that it would still be in an uptrend. The top of this channel (that we know of) is between $21-22k. That doesn't mean that it may expand more. Personally, I would take profit if it reaches the top of that channel to see what it does next.

That said, Bitcoin's bear markets usually occur about every 4 years. For all we know, Bitcoin could unlock another channel level above until then since it still has plenty of time to make its bull runs.

Even when BItcoin enter into another bear market, I have high doubts that it would reach the 3k low again. In the long term, crypto is one of the last assets that Millennials and Zoomers (Gen Z) can invest in. Why? Simply, TINA (There Is No Alternative). Bonds are nearly 0%. Real estate prices are still ridiculously high due to a push for more property tax revenue. Savings rates are almost 0%. Cash is weakening after a decade bull market. What is left for Gen Y and Z to park their cash? Stocks and crypto.

For that reason, I am bullish long-term with Bitcoin. In 20 years from now, Bitcoin could either hover around $4-5k or be well over 100k. Blockchain technology to the 2020s is like the internet was to the 2000s. It was only grow from here. So the reward outweighs the risk.

As for these volatile actions? Well, in normal equities, a 5-10% drop in a day would be devastating. In crypto trading, a 5% drop is just an average "Friday."
บันทึก
Lo and behold, BTC already recovered. Last weekend was a Black Friday Sale.

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