Mapping the bearish Elliot wave: Case for 25K Bitcoin

25 ส.ค.It's possible we've formed a false breakout of the highs. If we see another break, the odds of this are far higher and it will be viable all of the action we've seen since the first drop has just been a big choppy wave 2 flat.

If that is the case, the wave 2 flat is going to transition into the wave 3 trend. When that happens on timeframes this big, we call it a crash.

Wave 3 would be expected to continue to 30K.

Fake reversals and bull traps around 30K for the formation of wave 4. Then the wash out low for wave 5 at 25K. Even in the most bearish of scenarios, I'd expect to see a rally to 45K or so after this drop if it came.

From here the bias would strongly flip to some sort of correction. But this drop to 25K may well be the first super obvious signals the macro BTC uptrend has failed.

It'd be very consistent with the first leg of a full trend reversal. And if that happens, you're not likely to be seeing BTC over 60K anytime in the next multiple years. I'd go as far as to say tha several years down the line the idea BTC was ever thought to be going to 100K will be a meme.