BITCOIN Will we see 60k before 100k?

4 เม.ย.

Yesterday we discussed from a 4H perspective (see chart below) why it would be technically possible and above all healthy for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to pull-back to the 1D MA50 and then rebound:

Today we approach this from the 1W time-frame where the results are virtually the same. As you can see, Bitcoin has pulled-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Low on both previous corrections. Even the April - June and July - September double corrections last year (2023), both didn't exceed the 0.382 Fib.

With the underlying long-term pattern for BTC being a Channel Up since the November 2022 (FTX crash) bottom, such a pull-back would be a new Higher Low. As you can see every Bullish Leg to a Higher High is slightly weaker progressively. The 1st was +104.28%, the 2nd +96.69% (-8% lower), the 3rd +92.48% (-4% lower), so we may have a pattern here where every Higher High's decreasing rate is -50% lower each time. This indicates that the next Higher High may be -2% less, i.e. +90.48%.

That gives us a $110000 Higher High target but it is always safer to start taking profits (medium-term at least) around 100k. So if this model continues to repeat those systemic sequences, we are looking at the possibility of a 60-58k pull-back towards and marginally after the Halving and then new rally to 100k.

It is worth mentioning that every time such Higher Low pull-back took place within the Channel Up, the 1W MACD either made a Bearish Cross or a very tight Squeeze. We can already see the MACD reversing downwards.

So what do you think? It is more probable to see a 60k pull-back before a new rally to 100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!


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