Decision time for Bitcoin (very original title)
ที่อัปเดต:
I think we can all agree that the title is deserved (unlike most of the time when people post these). We have had bullish news but the price kept falling (unusual), as if it needed to accomplish its bear cycle. Maybe to go back up?
We are at the crossroad now. If it falls under the last support Bitcoin will have no choice but to enter a new leg of serious decline. The 200MA(day) is going down since June and acts as a strong resistance. If it falls more this will further destroy altcoins and the market may take years to recover (unless banks say otherwise). The $3000 prophecy that people have been pushing for months may finally happen. Like in 2013 blablabla.
My intuition is that we have had manipulations on the price associated with the release of bad or good news. The price moved by increment as if one hand decided to sell or buy at key moments. We never really went under critical levels even though the last dip of June managed to go bellow the support level. Some people said Wyckoff. Is it still valid today, doesn't look like it.
People love to draw triangle but it has proven to be an ineffective method here. They constantly have to redraw their triangles with different slopes because we are constantly breaking them upward.
It just looks like that we are trading between ranges which go lower and lower but too slowly to be a triangle.
Shorts aren't particularly high this time, so we will need real buyers to go back up.
The question that I asked in my previous TA (where I predicted the short squeeze), was are the actors willing to let a long bear market happen?
With the international situation the US Dollar is likely to collapse as dedollarisation occurs.
Christine Lagarde was already eyeing cryptos a year ago publicly. If BTC goes lower they can increase their profits. So it's not urgent for them. They could theoretically wait another 6 months which would be enough for the price to reach 3k or something. But maybe some banks like goldman sachs want to have the first movers advantage and will allow the price to go up quickly after they accumulated. We know all the banks are waiting to see what GS will do before entering. They were supposed to do so in June, but now are saying this market isn't mature enough. It is probable that GS will not trigger any bullrun and just wait for the perfect time to get in. Have ETF's already been priced in the market?
So basically anything can happen. Fundamentals are bullish. Market is bearish. We all know that. We will know hopefully in a few days if Bitcoin is dead for the next 6 months or not.
We are at the crossroad now. If it falls under the last support Bitcoin will have no choice but to enter a new leg of serious decline. The 200MA(day) is going down since June and acts as a strong resistance. If it falls more this will further destroy altcoins and the market may take years to recover (unless banks say otherwise). The $3000 prophecy that people have been pushing for months may finally happen. Like in 2013 blablabla.
My intuition is that we have had manipulations on the price associated with the release of bad or good news. The price moved by increment as if one hand decided to sell or buy at key moments. We never really went under critical levels even though the last dip of June managed to go bellow the support level. Some people said Wyckoff. Is it still valid today, doesn't look like it.
People love to draw triangle but it has proven to be an ineffective method here. They constantly have to redraw their triangles with different slopes because we are constantly breaking them upward.
It just looks like that we are trading between ranges which go lower and lower but too slowly to be a triangle.
Shorts aren't particularly high this time, so we will need real buyers to go back up.
The question that I asked in my previous TA (where I predicted the short squeeze), was are the actors willing to let a long bear market happen?
With the international situation the US Dollar is likely to collapse as dedollarisation occurs.
Christine Lagarde was already eyeing cryptos a year ago publicly. If BTC goes lower they can increase their profits. So it's not urgent for them. They could theoretically wait another 6 months which would be enough for the price to reach 3k or something. But maybe some banks like goldman sachs want to have the first movers advantage and will allow the price to go up quickly after they accumulated. We know all the banks are waiting to see what GS will do before entering. They were supposed to do so in June, but now are saying this market isn't mature enough. It is probable that GS will not trigger any bullrun and just wait for the perfect time to get in. Have ETF's already been priced in the market?
So basically anything can happen. Fundamentals are bullish. Market is bearish. We all know that. We will know hopefully in a few days if Bitcoin is dead for the next 6 months or not.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Looks like my green scenario is happening. But I didn't draw the charts with accuracy in mind. So anything can happen. Keep in mind that a lot of people probably don't want bitcoin to 'die' (temporarily of course).บันทึกช่วยจำ
So we are testing the ultimate support. It' time to say our prayers.บันทึกช่วยจำ
We are still testing the support. If it goes bellow 6000 it has to go back up within the next hours otherwise we can consider the support breached and bitcoin to be commencing its terminal decline. Then the 4-3k range becomes a fatality. Death of all alts (>99% loss). Be we aren't there yet.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Some people are expecting a small rally in order for MagicPoopCanon to be wrong, this is a possibility. But usually bitcoin goes up in large increments so decision time for bitcoin would have to happen within weeks. If it's just a small rally it can go up to only half the previous high, and it would be reached very quickly.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Shorts are going high. A small short squeeze is a possibility.บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC is safe. It will go back up as a new short squeeze is inevitable now. The price is going up already.บันทึกช่วยจำ
It bounced under the resistance/support line I drew. Looks like the shorters managed to scare people off. We need to watch BTCUSDSHORTS closely.
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