You Say Triangle, I Say Wedge

15 ส.ค. 2020

In the next six weeks, BTC price will have to make a decision, whether it is to rocket out of the top, or jump off of a bridge. The concerning thing is that a bearish wedge tends to break to the downside far more often than up. Like 80% of the time or more. Oh, but you were told BTC was definitely an ascending triangle that I've seen so many times here recently? Notice that with this wedge, you have 5 strong hits against the topside, and even one hazy touch. This is the pattern that BTC has been respecting since it's climb from the March dump. This would be the time to begin to plan an exit strategy to secure profits should BTC head down. Of note, this is the same pattern that many other markets are trading in, which is not surprising given the current economic situation.

15 ส.ค. 2020

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S & P 500

15 ส.ค. 2020

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Dow Jones:

15 ส.ค. 2020

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Day to day may make it seem different, but BTC is making its moves in sync with the other markets. I wouldn't count on FED money printing to save the price. They've been removing money off the books since June.

25 ส.ค. 2020

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Annnnnd....we are outside of the bearish wedge. However, this is a weekly candle (or at minimum a daily movement) so know that it can rise back inside. S&P has been out for a couple of days. I think we may see first signs of a bigger market dump soon.

2 ก.ย. 2020

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As you can see, the bearish wedge scenario is still in play and BTC's first attempt at regaining access was rejected, causing a drop down to the 50MA. I would expect a second attempt this week, probably around the 4th. We have a possible Wychoff Spring to deal with on the daily, however if BTC can't regain 12500 and close there by the end of the week, we will begin a long descent. Next time bears will be ready to short about 12K.

S&P and the Dow are in the same predicament.

4 ก.ย. 2020

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Looks now like all of the cats are out of their bags. DJI chart:

and S&P:

4 ก.ย. 2020

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So where now? According to the bias governing bearish wedges, the end targte is equal to the first touch to the underside of the wedge. Sometimes wedges form after sideways action, but this formed during a V shaped bottom. This of course means our final target is back down to $3850.