What if this is the bottom but....

I don't think this is the bottom but I thought "What would make me bullish about this setup without making a new low?"

This is what I can come up with. I'd long this 100%.

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You know what's crazy? I just searched for something similar to this pattern by going a while back in the chart. Copied the first thing that my eyes catched and pasted it to current chart directly and it actually respected the levels. Aaand the top became 100k! I swear all by coincidences, at first try lol.

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I know macro is shit but TA-wise this really makes sense. A lot of instances like this exist on the chart.

It creates a lot of fear for retail. People will be super bearish when they see a strong dump. Unfortunately there will be serious amount of shorts opened near 18k. On the other hand, it'll give a chance to buy for a lot of investors. I believe sell pressure can be absorbed at the bottom. And then bait shorts a few days more and send it.

I'm not bullish until i see the bottom is being defended though. 5% margin of error.

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Here is how it looks on a bigger picture. Crazy enough?

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I think the Adam&Eve which some people was talking about lately is already gone in a way. With the below chart you can see the market tried to build too steep curves but they failed. Now i believe bulls should try to build a bigger one like the blue one. The ultimate Eve :D

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This is also why I wasn't bullish about this last move up. Bigger curve means more confidence. It's easier to maintain. These ones were bound to fail.

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I realized this is a better view. This one is good if it can hold.

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*scared face emoji*

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Let's gooo.

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If you see your exchange logs you out, doesn't let you in soon, that's probably the bottom :D

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To summarize, what i wanna see is a high volume sell off. Change of hands and come back to the range.

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Jump straight corn. But don't injure yourself.

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nice

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idk still slow for me. be careful.

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i wanted to see volume. i'm sorry but it looks dead.

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14k is my next target

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I mean if I see more accumulation just like the blue pattern on the idea, that's still bullish. But until then, i should be very careful.

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Until then, I have to consider the possibility that this was just the beginning.

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Let's hope this is not the play. Because it feels like it so far.

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It's sad. Those days we think it's down too much but it goes lower and lower.

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I took a small long from 1600 but I'll sell at first good opportunity.

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This is a big magnet level. Sooner or later.

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I got out from 16.600. That's all i can with this garbage pa :D It's better to wait for a tradable pattern here.

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You gotta see this momentum fading slowly like this if you wanna buy imo.

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1. This will probably an opportunity to reload shorts.
2. Gaining 19k is bullish.

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Zoomed in magnet level

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I am being veeery careful with this.

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I am in a good short right now. But I am really scared for the market. I love Bitcoin and technically I hate to say we need 10k reset.

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Slow consistent pressure. I closed my short but it's still bad.

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This retest and rebuilding momentum really scares me but let's see BTC is full of surprises.

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Very simple chart. Reclaim the range and we are going. Bear market is over. Until then, it's bear kingdom.

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It's probably a great time for whales to accumulate. Think about it. Stubborn retail hodled their coins so far. Many of them DCA'd all their money etc. Now let alone the mass media, CEO of the biggest exchange is saying "Terrible terrible things may happen in crypto."

That doesn't mean price won't go down from here. But I think we are really close to the end. If you've survived so far, you still have money that you can risk, it's time.

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My ltf view. it should hold around here.

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I longed. I missed to be chopped out :D Let's see.

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I think TA is ok but bad part is funding rates are too positive right now. So very low confidence just in case trade for me.

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16.500 entry/16.400 stop/17.900 tp

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง:

Closed because it's Friday and nothing happened :D

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I think it's going down to be honest. But I don't like BTC short below 20k, fundamentally :D

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Looks like some people got excited but I can't see a reversal yet:

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Maybe this is the last wave of exit pumps on alts. First shitcoins now bigger coins. Maybe.

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Update. This rising wedge is important imo.

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I got a short from 16.700. I had to try to trade this :D

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It's broken but still holding. kind of. Probably because NASDAQ is still looking alright.

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I'm still short. I'm not very commited to this trade tho. If I see ltf breakout I'll close.

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Closed at 16.500

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I'll be looking for some alt shorts soon probably but not now. Now is watch time for me.

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I see some good bottom formations on some alts. I'm half bullish until they get invalidated. I got some small longs today on AVAX, ALGO and EGLD. I believe many alts can make big moves before another serious dump. More accumulation is possible around here though.

Honestly I'm starting to think we may be in a good shape until 2023 Jan. But that's just a doubt at this point.

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Here is my prophecy :D Worst case 14k until the new year. 19k in March. 10k in June. Then bull market.

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ETH is leading the pump. I have problems with that but anyway. Market is doing what I expected. So I'm totally ok with it :D

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Don't look for shorts immediately if you are reading this. Let the market process this a few days. Take some profit if you had longs and watch.

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I'm more focused on NASDAQ these days. Something like the green one is more likely imo. For the bear case I mean. I prefer the bear case for mid-term.

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I'm already preparing my "BTC Redistribution" idea :D Prove this wrong corn:

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2 ways to invalidate this. Come for confirmation around 15.900 before breaking the range. Then it has a better chance for a serious breakout. The other one is obviously up only. Squeeze higher and higher.

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Zoomed in. It does make sense...

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I'm considering to short 17500

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I'll short but with tighter stop. 17.540 entry 17.760 stop.

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Not enough info yet

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I cancelled my short order. This structure is different than what I expected. I am long on algo and nothing else.

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Mixed signals. I think it'll come for range low test though.

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SPX is interesting. Down only or this.

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I think this is a better view for this range

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A what if game with the pitchfork. I'd like to see it being defended. 13k bottom. Big accumulation pattern. Perfect.

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I'm sure it'll be respected. The question is how.

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Came for the confirmation? It's gonna be nasty if that's the case.

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Not too bad so far. It's still a right shoulder though. But looks somewhat promising for the bulls. Very short-term of course.

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Now it looks like shit again :D Not a surprise.

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Btw I'm so out of the market atm. I have some small amount of spot Algo and a small ETH short position.

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Interesting perspective. Looks like this daily trend is broken for the 3rd time.

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I think it's coming for another touch and I think it's gonna be the key for next move.

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I'd bet on the red one btw. But it's like 55/45 probability.

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I'm not saying it's going to happen but this is still on the table. There are some similarities and interesting coincidences here. It's good to be prepared for the worst.

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It will give the signs before it happens, if it's going to happen. You can see the building momentum there. If it's gonna crash you'll see it. Will you accept it when you see it? That's the question. I'm saying I'll accept it if this is the case.

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Hahaha this looks crazy right now.

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There is a similarity I cannot deny but I say no. Not yet at least.