Bitcoin probabilistic longterm outlook

On the chart above I've displayed what IMHO are the odds that price will the reach the specified median lines.
There's a strong uptrend support at the 50% line. The range below 50% line has been consolidated troughout 2014-2017. The range above the 50% line has yet to be consolidated.
Also this bull market extended the price range by 2 levels, coincidently the consolidation range also took exactly 2 levels.
This next consolidation phase should take place in the blue zone if bitcoin was to follow the same pattern it did in the prior upleg.

Bad news: Oscillators like TSI, MACD and RSI still hape plenty of room to drop. Bitcoin can and should drop to atleast 3.5k
Good news: If Bitcoin we're to follow exactly the same structure it has. There's a chance it's going to 400k at 2022, which seems insane, but this is what the chart says.