Fibonacci Retracement Consolidation for Bitcoin Wave 3
Alright, it’s been a lengthy delay, but I am back after some major personal life events. Courtesy of marriage and a honeymoon. Let’s take a look at where the market stands, as it appears there is a major move lingering.
On the daily linear Bitcoin chart on Bitfinex we have a nice little consolidation period going on here. Price came up and did it’s 5 wave Elliot Impulse since the start of April, and now we are getting a nice corrective wave downward that could be a Elliot Triple Wave Combo, a WXYXZ downward, with the end point being that low from May 18th at $7,925.
The big thing to look at here is that price already completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement passed the $8,211 level in green. There was an attempt to get down the .618 fib level at $7,789, however the bear move was stalled on the bottom of that blue channel. Since then, price has rallied back up and outside the channel to where it resides and is retesting today. We will look at that closer on the hourly chart.
Regardless, price hast bounced down in that golden ratio pocket between .618 and .5, so there is a pretty decent probably we could get a nice rally here beginning the wave 3 on the bullish impulse wave.
The fact that the RSI and the MACD are leveling out is a good sign. The histogram is turning upward on the MACD too, even though we have not gotten a bullish crossover yet. The RSI is showing some bullish divergence which I marked with that blue line on the RSI chart.
Volume is also declining as you can see with that orange sloping downward line across the bottom of the chart, which can be indicative of a big move to come. Right now, I’m leaning bullish.
Price here is still below some of the key EMA’s where you can see the red 233 day EMA is holding price down for now and even the 21 day EMA in turquoise is providing resistance at the top of the candle wick from earlier today.
On the 1 hr linear Bitcoin chart on Bitfinex, you can see how both the pink and light blue channels that have contained price have been broken to the upside and now are acting as support.
Price did get above the red 233 hourly EMA yesterday and earlier today, but was not able to sustain the level and has come back down to that light blue channel as support. Even the orange down trending line from he peak back on April 24th is now acting as support for the lowest wick today.
This convergence of the EMAs is also indicative of a big move coming. I have circled the price action from back on May 10th as a prime example for the big move that is on its way.
Another encouraging sign is how quickly this RSI is resetting from the overboughtedness last night. If price can slip back into the oversold level today with maybe another bounce on that blue or orange trend line for support. Price could quickly explode as many would see that as the bullish sign and confirmation they have been waiting for.
On the other hand, if price breaks that level of about $8,200, well there’s a decent chance we could come back down to the $7,800 to test the .618 fib line on the other side of the golden pocket. Looking to buy at $8,200 with a tight stop loss of $8,100 may be prudent.
I have even slipped in a Fibonacci retracement on this bullish move since the 17th and a .618 retracement that would hit $8,205 again would be perfect buy in. If we can get a nice bounce on strong volume in the next day or so here, a move back up to $13,500 is not out of the question.
On the daily linear Bitcoin chart on Bitfinex we have a nice little consolidation period going on here. Price came up and did it’s 5 wave Elliot Impulse since the start of April, and now we are getting a nice corrective wave downward that could be a Elliot Triple Wave Combo, a WXYXZ downward, with the end point being that low from May 18th at $7,925.
The big thing to look at here is that price already completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement passed the $8,211 level in green. There was an attempt to get down the .618 fib level at $7,789, however the bear move was stalled on the bottom of that blue channel. Since then, price has rallied back up and outside the channel to where it resides and is retesting today. We will look at that closer on the hourly chart.
Regardless, price hast bounced down in that golden ratio pocket between .618 and .5, so there is a pretty decent probably we could get a nice rally here beginning the wave 3 on the bullish impulse wave.
The fact that the RSI and the MACD are leveling out is a good sign. The histogram is turning upward on the MACD too, even though we have not gotten a bullish crossover yet. The RSI is showing some bullish divergence which I marked with that blue line on the RSI chart.
Volume is also declining as you can see with that orange sloping downward line across the bottom of the chart, which can be indicative of a big move to come. Right now, I’m leaning bullish.
Price here is still below some of the key EMA’s where you can see the red 233 day EMA is holding price down for now and even the 21 day EMA in turquoise is providing resistance at the top of the candle wick from earlier today.
On the 1 hr linear Bitcoin chart on Bitfinex, you can see how both the pink and light blue channels that have contained price have been broken to the upside and now are acting as support.
Price did get above the red 233 hourly EMA yesterday and earlier today, but was not able to sustain the level and has come back down to that light blue channel as support. Even the orange down trending line from he peak back on April 24th is now acting as support for the lowest wick today.
This convergence of the EMAs is also indicative of a big move coming. I have circled the price action from back on May 10th as a prime example for the big move that is on its way.
Another encouraging sign is how quickly this RSI is resetting from the overboughtedness last night. If price can slip back into the oversold level today with maybe another bounce on that blue or orange trend line for support. Price could quickly explode as many would see that as the bullish sign and confirmation they have been waiting for.
On the other hand, if price breaks that level of about $8,200, well there’s a decent chance we could come back down to the $7,800 to test the .618 fib line on the other side of the golden pocket. Looking to buy at $8,200 with a tight stop loss of $8,100 may be prudent.
I have even slipped in a Fibonacci retracement on this bullish move since the 17th and a .618 retracement that would hit $8,205 again would be perfect buy in. If we can get a nice bounce on strong volume in the next day or so here, a move back up to $13,500 is not out of the question.
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