BTC POST HALVING
ที่อัปเดต:
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes...
We're now in the post-halving part of the Bullrun, and we can look back into Bitcoins history to help predict what might happen next.
Typically A bull cycle lasts 1065 days from the low to the high with the halving event in the middle. If we use that same timeframe and apply it to this Bullrun we can expect the peak for BTC to come in early October of 2025.
Now we know that once BTC has had it's top, altcoins regain some of the market dominance in an "Alt season" which is often a manic period of profits from BTC being poured into increasingly risky projects until the whole thing comes crumbling down, which then leads too...
The bear market which historically lasts for a full year from top to bottom. The bear market comes when most people least expect it as they are so used to price going up, complacency and greed can cost you all of the gains made in the last 3+ years. It's also important to note that BTC routinely goes through 25-30% corrections on the way up, and this is where many fall down. Knowing the difference between a correction and a top is the difference between making it and roundtripping everything. Have an exit strategy, take profit at key areas, don't let greed win.
The Fibonacci levels can be very useful when a project goes into price discovery as well as big even levels, your 100, 150, 200's etc. When Fib levels line up with these big evens you can expect resistance and therefor look to protect your capital.
Bitcoin is very close to a breakout from the '21 ATH level, we've been above SWB:69K before but swing failed to hit 56K, I am still a little worried about the
52K +VE Orderblock as shown in green, it would make sense to revisit that area at some point however it does depend on this current SWB:69K S/R level.
We're now in the post-halving part of the Bullrun, and we can look back into Bitcoins history to help predict what might happen next.
Typically A bull cycle lasts 1065 days from the low to the high with the halving event in the middle. If we use that same timeframe and apply it to this Bullrun we can expect the peak for BTC to come in early October of 2025.
Now we know that once BTC has had it's top, altcoins regain some of the market dominance in an "Alt season" which is often a manic period of profits from BTC being poured into increasingly risky projects until the whole thing comes crumbling down, which then leads too...
The bear market which historically lasts for a full year from top to bottom. The bear market comes when most people least expect it as they are so used to price going up, complacency and greed can cost you all of the gains made in the last 3+ years. It's also important to note that BTC routinely goes through 25-30% corrections on the way up, and this is where many fall down. Knowing the difference between a correction and a top is the difference between making it and roundtripping everything. Have an exit strategy, take profit at key areas, don't let greed win.
The Fibonacci levels can be very useful when a project goes into price discovery as well as big even levels, your 100, 150, 200's etc. When Fib levels line up with these big evens you can expect resistance and therefor look to protect your capital.
Bitcoin is very close to a breakout from the '21 ATH level, we've been above SWB:69K before but swing failed to hit 56K, I am still a little worried about the
52K +VE Orderblock as shown in green, it would make sense to revisit that area at some point however it does depend on this current SWB:69K S/R level. บันทึกช่วยจำ
Continuing to try and breakthrough the '21 ATH and making it stick. Vey mentally draining chop maintains. However, things often look negative before a big move to the opposite. The 4H200 EMA is lost for now and is the first target to reclaim for now.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC rejects off '21 ATH $52,000 Orderblock+ is in sight, first HTF support level.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC front run the $52,000 by $1,500. It's not uncommon for obvious areas to be front-run as it can leave traders sidelined and forced to buy higher than they wanted. The problem is that area is still untouched and is still an area that price will be attracted to leading to price turn back bearish.
$65,000 major resistance and $61,500 is key S/R contested area that needs to hold to flip the daily to bullish.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
two touches of $65,000 today, as I stated previously this is major résistance but if BTC can break above and stay there it's a very promising sign.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Great progress has been made over the last few days. Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $423 million, continuing net inflows for 8 consecutive days. BlackRock ETF IBIT had a single-day inflow of $260 million.$65,000 Has been flipped, a key S/R area. I'm expecting some kind of LTF pullback but a daily close above $65,000 would be huge.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
After tagging the 50k bullish orderblock BTC has now surpassed the '21 ATH and now the ATH set earlier this year.
Officially now in price discovery mode!
บันทึกช่วยจำ
BTC approaching the first fib since breaking ATH @ 83,500.
Should expect some resistance at this level, keeping a close eye on the 2 moves that could occur:
- As BTC hits the fib it could chop sideways for a bit to cool down, I would like to see altcoins catch up while bitcoin is chopping and this for me is the bullish scenario.
-The second option would be if BTC rejects of the fib, in which case I could see it falling to around the $77,500 level which I would like to see hold. Altcoins would suffer a setback if this happens.
Overall the bias is still very bullish.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน