MTF Short Idea for BTC

7 ก.พ.

Before we see a final wave up to new ATH's, I think we see one more push down closer to the lows of the recent liquidation candle. Price has been moving within this predictive channel and while I don't think it's high probability we hit then bottom of it, I think using it is a nice way to contain price action for now and use it to establish a reasonable target for profits around the middle of the channel.

Since the most recent local lows around 95.6k, price has been following this upwards arcing price action. From my experience these tend to end in impulsive moves upwards, leaving behind limited structure to fall back on safely. I would like to see price impulse up, sweep the local highs around 99.1k, break the arcing support it has been creating and retrace back into the descending channel. I would also like to see high delta and trapped buying above those highs at 99.1k for additional confluence.

It's very important for me to see price retrace back into the descending channel before entering. If we sweep the highs but don't retrace back into the descending channel then it may be flipped as support and at that point I would reconsider my stance on needing a bigger retrace towards the lows of the liquidation candle before beginning a new wave to ATHs. Enjoy!

10 ก.พ.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

Overall a good trade. Price did impulse out of the descending channel where it was rejected at .618 fib when pulling a fib from the swing high at 102.5k to the swing low at 95.7k. As expected there was significant buying into the high of the impulse, resulting in positive delta and trapped trades. Plenty of opportunity to get short at this point using a retrace back under swing highs as a trigger, or back into the descending channel as a trigger. Over the weekend there was also a few good opportunities to get short if the first impulse was missed.

Concerning profit taking. over the weekend we did make a series of lows which made me think that perhaps the sellers would not be able to push the price much lower considering how many times the GP at 95.2k - 94.8k was slightly fronton. Ultimately price retraced into the GP which was an ideal place to close the entire position and get long, or at least hedge with a long and keep a little bit of short position open in case we broke down further to sweep the lows 94.1k or continued lower.