To 12k, analysis as before plus one thing
ที่อัปเดต:
So I had some more time and I tried to have a closer look.
In log plot the resistance is strong and old (yellow line) but we are at it. -> first bump
Fibonacci analysis as I tried seems convincing as it hits most of the feature in the price pattern. With target to 12000 € 0.03% , we are around the first Fibonacci retracement . -> second bump, but fixes some targets
The RSI is approaching a previous repeated resistance -> third bump
There was no special reason for the last jump, or actually there was one: kill the bears. Look at the BTCUSD shorts 0.60% (middle graph), I guess that a lot of people has been burnt there so the last channel seems like a perfect bear trap: shorts went up parabolically, and BANG there comes the guillotine. There was/is a lot of talk in the BTCUSD 3.42% section about going for 6000$ again, people brainwashed themselves and I guess that many shorted, and then the real money came in for the bloodbath. This thing of being able to short is a disgrace but Bitfinex closes the shorts automatically when the funds do not cover. Close the shorts, = buying, = price up, = more shorts closed, = price more up. And there we go explaining the sudden jump. Likely a lot of bears were killed there.
So the optimist bulls may be gone due to the slow continuous decay of price, and now the pessimistic bears may be gone too. I hope in some media attention, so perhaps the bulls gone kept their money in the exchange and come back now!
In conclusion, the outlook is good but the way is bumpy. If it starts looking like another correction, I will sell and buy later, otherwise it can be that keeps increasing and it is better to hold!
Then, if Bitcoin is a bubble, well it looks indeed kind of similar to the Nasdaq bubble: a high max, a few dips with a deeper one followed by a double top. We are now, in the analogy, in the continuously raising part afterwards. For Nasdaq that ended with the crisis of 2009 after quite some time, and for external reasons. The target of 12k seems confirmed, perhaps
In log plot the resistance is strong and old (yellow line) but we are at it. -> first bump
Fibonacci analysis as I tried seems convincing as it hits most of the feature in the price pattern. With target to 12000 € 0.03% , we are around the first Fibonacci retracement . -> second bump, but fixes some targets
The RSI is approaching a previous repeated resistance -> third bump
There was no special reason for the last jump, or actually there was one: kill the bears. Look at the BTCUSD shorts 0.60% (middle graph), I guess that a lot of people has been burnt there so the last channel seems like a perfect bear trap: shorts went up parabolically, and BANG there comes the guillotine. There was/is a lot of talk in the BTCUSD 3.42% section about going for 6000$ again, people brainwashed themselves and I guess that many shorted, and then the real money came in for the bloodbath. This thing of being able to short is a disgrace but Bitfinex closes the shorts automatically when the funds do not cover. Close the shorts, = buying, = price up, = more shorts closed, = price more up. And there we go explaining the sudden jump. Likely a lot of bears were killed there.
So the optimist bulls may be gone due to the slow continuous decay of price, and now the pessimistic bears may be gone too. I hope in some media attention, so perhaps the bulls gone kept their money in the exchange and come back now!
In conclusion, the outlook is good but the way is bumpy. If it starts looking like another correction, I will sell and buy later, otherwise it can be that keeps increasing and it is better to hold!
Then, if Bitcoin is a bubble, well it looks indeed kind of similar to the Nasdaq bubble: a high max, a few dips with a deeper one followed by a double top. We are now, in the analogy, in the continuously raising part afterwards. For Nasdaq that ended with the crisis of 2009 after quite some time, and for external reasons. The target of 12k seems confirmed, perhaps
บันทึกช่วยจำ
pity, the "bump" at RSI resistance hit againand now we are hovering again around the Fibonacci pivot
It is really a dangerous market at the moment, I try to trade very very small positions but it is a lot of stress to gain just peanuts
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Critical moment! The RSI is at the resistance, the price is very very close to the yellow line, and we are at least inside the next Fibonacci pivot. It can go all wrong with a jump down, but I think it is more likely that
it goes all good with a jump up. Look at BTH, LTC, ETH: all increased like 50% in a few days. It is BTC's turn. It is being blocked by a mass of shorts, so hopefully we get another short squeeze with a jump of 1000€. You bears better get buying now.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Great, it jumped through the yellow line and the RSI resistance indeed. Jump of some 600 not 1000€ but I would say it was a good call :)Also, yes, was done as a mini short squeeze, see the graph on the bottom
And overall the situation looks healthy (status of the 5m RSI etc.)
One last thing, I am stuck to reputation 33. If you like the idea, please do hit a like or follow, I would appreciate it a lot to be able to comment on the ideas of the other guys here. Some are really good indeed!
บันทึกช่วยจำ
This idea keeps on being very valid. We were rejected today at the next Fibonacci pivot, very expectable since RSI was at oversold and actually intraday the price did a double top without going through (see bottom 5 mins graph). It was clear at that point that it would have fallen
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