BULLISH: Bitcoin Top & Bottom Price Action Integral Bands

30 ม.ค. 2020

Here I present my indictor for longterm swing trades and/or general market cycle analysis of bitcoin: the top & bottom price action integral bands (short: PAIBs)!

Instead of fitting some curve dependent on time (~ f(t)), I integrate over price action with two custom functionals. Then if I expand those functionals by +- 5% I get two bands, in blue the top price action integral band, and in red the bottom price action integral. The bands are calculated in real time, there is no repaint or other manual modification involved. There is always only one (weekly) candle per cycle top which touches (or breaches) the blue top band. This is a strong indicator for a sell or short. For the bottom band we often have two opportunities to add to spot or long positions, as these phases are more drawn out. The bottom band has some similarities with the CVDD-model, although it uses completely different data (CVDD uses on-chain tx metrics while here price action data from BLX price index are used), however both models predict the same bottoms. It is easier to implement the PAIBs in TradingView, as on-chain metrics are not as easily available in TV.

The current top price indicated by the blue band is roughly $63000 per BTC.
The current bottom band shows around $4500 per BTC.

Note: I also added estimates for future band development up until the end of 2021 (by hand), those are not calculated!

The future looks bullish indeed. Of course this is no financial advice.

Hope you find this helpful! I will talk more about this and other indicators (including updates) in the future here on TV and on twitter.