Banknifty prediction for today 14 Jun

14 มิ.ย.

As we discussed yesterday, BankNifty spent on an up-trending channel and ended sideways.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is in the channel right now. If it breaks down to the downside, it will give a nice bearish momentum.
Support levels: 49778, 49255, and 49052
resistance levels: 50102 and 50202

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.74, which has decreased from 0.87, shows a mild bearish sign in the market. There is no such max-pain, which means the market can easily achieve 49500. On the higher side, 50000 has very good CE writing, which is also at the psychological level. The market only has PE on 49000. The option chain seems fully bearish.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1: Sideways in channel.
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks the channel to the downside.


Reason:

1. RSI 46-60 shows a sideways structure.
   
2. Price < EMA(13) but greater than EMA(200), which indicates the market can correct itself till 200 EMA.
   
3. EMA Bearish crossover of EMA(13, 50).
   
4. PCR = 0.74, which has decreased from 0.87, shows a mild bearish sign in the market.
   
5. Price ~= VWAP shows an indecisive market structure.
   

Verdict: Sideways in channel. Bearish if it breaks the channel to the downside.

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 49800 PE & 49900 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2: Exit 49900 PE if it breaks to the downside.