PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 JUN 2023

7 มิ.ย. 2023

Banknifty was looking weaker compared to Nifty50 today, finally the day ended in green with a W pattern on 5mts TF.
Although we started today with a gap-up, the index was bleeding. Banknifty fell underwater by 10.40 - meanwhile Nifty50 was surging supported mainly by NiftyIT which came back strong after yesterday's trashing.

There was no strong downside momentum for banknifty, but the index was just weaker not having enough in it to rally as well. It was easy to tell that we will not have a big fall today looking at the options premium. Banknifty options had a lower implied volatility than Nifty50 thereby translating into cheaper option prices on BN.

After 13.40 there was a huge buying momentum on Nifty50 mainly aided by Reliance, TCS and then the bank stocks also caught-up.
Nifty50 went up 0.4% in the last 2 hours today pulling up banknifty above water and finally giving it gains of 0.25%. Nifty on the other hand closed 0.68%

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15mts TF still shows banknifty in a range bound trade, we might need a range expansion trade day to exit this deadlock. If the momentum of Nifty50 is considered, then banknifty has higher chances to break upwards.

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1hr TF shows banknifty trying to build up the momentum to go upwards. Still not clear why we had a drop on 31 May, there is no continuation of negative bias/event/triggers that could take banknifty further lower.
All eyes will be on the interest rate decision by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Almost all the market participants are expecting a continuation of rate-pause (i.e. current interest rate of 6.5% will continue). I personally feel we might see a hike of 25bps to 6.75%.

The main reason being the inability by the banks to stop the loan growth. Liquidity is still abundant in the system which will cast a shadow on "Inflation" by not cutting demand. Inflation which has cooled off, will not need that much of a time to rebound.

If RBI is not deciding to hike the interest rate, they need to seriously consider bring down the liquidity. Withdrawal of accommodative stance has to be changed to "Withdrawal stance". I still think RBI has to be equally hawkish as the US & Europe central banks.