This technical analysis by no means, is a financial advice and this only works for me and I personally think post the best analysis I can, Please do you own research.
Every coin/token in this market is affected by the price of bitcoin. My expectation is, if price of BTC drops to the range of 19k-21k, dollar cost averaging these prices are ideal for a long term investment into AVAX. We still can have a short squeeze, but long term trend is down ward. Luna Foundation Guard selling made things worst as well and short term investor might panic sale a bit more.
In my strategy, I used Volume profile and Ichimoku to find the best level of support and demand.