One of my trading routines is doing weekly analysis where I analyze market and find trading edge for me for next week. I found this habits make me more productive and give consistent results. In my weekly analysis , I found some interesting trading facts, and will share one for you here.
AUDUSD, I know some traders out there think to trade short for this currency. And maybe you also think the same thing. But let me give you what I found. First, AUDUSD now fighting strong resistance where supply so strong here (0.77365-0.78075), so no surprise, if market rejected strongly on 25th Feb 2021 and formed a false break on the chart. And this then make price dropped and broke again below support. This made most traders think AUDUSD failed to rise up and will do some bearish movement in near short term. But ....
as you know, most traders lost for they just analyze like that. My experience so far tells me that I must do deeper analysis from that. In this case, price action context must be done. Context talking about all environment around price that can show price behavior. And if you notice from my chart, I drew a support horizontal zone (grey zone) and this still not broken yet. As you see on my chart, price rebounded from it and broke again first layer of resistance (now become new support). This behavior told me that, though supply strongly poured down to market by sellers. But , buyers absorbed all of it and maintain their position on the horizontal zone. This as if buyers tell us, that they want market to be high and they are ready to absorbed all selling order flow from sellers. This fact alone can not make me to think bearish. For buyers, somehow, now, still strong enough in market.
Second, We have a confluence factor in chart. That is horizontal support and dynamic one (moving average) together holds price and make it rebounded last week. If I see all along the journey of upward movement from AUDUSD consistently follow this dynamic support. This strongly tells me that buyers respect it a lot. And until now , it still exist there. The institutions not change a bit.
Third, If I apply my Ichimoku analysis on lower time frame (H1) showing that bullish bias exists though a correction phase happening there.
So, my view still bias on this AUDUSD and will search to buy chance next week.